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The next steps automakers could take after sales drop again in April

DETROIT (Reuters) - Major automakers on Tuesday posted declines in U.S. new vehicle sales for April in a sign the long boom cycle that lifted the American auto industry to record sales last year is losing steam, sending carmaker stocks down. The drop in sales versus April 2016 came on the heels of a disappointing March, which automakers had shrugged off as just a bad month. But two straight weak months has heightened Wall Street worries the cyclical industry is on a downward swing after a nearly uninterrupted boom since the Great Recession's end in 2010. Auto sales were a drag on U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product, with the economy growing at an annual rate of just 0.7 percent according to an advance estimate published by the Commerce Department last Friday. Excluding the auto sector the GDP growth rate would have been 1.2 percent. Industry consultant Autodata put the industry's seasonally adjusted annualized rate of sales at 16.88 million units for April, below the average of 17.2 million units predicted by analysts polled by Reuters. General Motors Co shares fell 2.9 percent while Ford Motor Co slid 4.3 percent and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's U.S.-traded shares tumbled 4.2 percent. The U.S. auto industry faces multiple challenges. Sales are slipping and vehicle inventory levels have risen even as carmakers have hiked discounts to lure customers. A flood of used vehicles from the boom cycle are increasingly competing with new cars. The question for automakers: How much and for how long to curtail production this summer, which will result in worker layoffs? To bring down stocks of unsold vehicles, the Detroit automakers need to cut production, and offer more discounts without creating "an incentives war," said Mark Wakefield, head of the North American automotive practice for AlixPartners in Southfield, Michigan. "We see multiple weeks (of production) being taken out on the car side," he said, "and some softness on the truck side." Rival automakers will be watching each other to see if one is cutting prices to gain market share from another, he said, instead of just clearing inventory. INVESTORS DIGEST BAD NEWS Just last week GM reported a record first-quarter profit, but that had almost zero impact on the automaker's stock. The iconic carmaker, whose own interest was once conflated with that of America's, has slipped behind luxury carmaker Tesla Inc in terms of valuation.

Ford to revisit CVTs?

Today, Ford wishes its first experience with non-hybrid continuously variable transmissions was far behind it. The Blue Oval was awash in complaints and a couple of class-action lawsuits over the CVTs used in its 2005-2007 Ford Freestyle, Five Hundred and Mercury Montego models, which were a manufactured in Batavia, Ohio as part of a joint venture with ZF. The company gave up on the CVT after just two years, but with fuel economy standards pressing automakers to conjure new tricks, Ford's global product development head, Raj Nair, is now saying the transmissions might make a return, "particularly in the low torque applications," says Automotive News. An obvious candidate for CVT consideration is the 1.0-liter Fiesta that can presently only be had with a five-speed manual. Beyond that, the company's 1.6-liter and 2.0-liter four-cylinder engines might fit the bill. Ford hasn't given any indication as to what vehicles it might use to reintroduce the CVT to the US market, or hints about timeline or who would develop it, however. Some CVT trivia: The 1990 Subaru Justy II was the first US passenger car offered with a continuously variable transmission - Subaru called it the ECVT. It handled gearing duties for a 1.2-liter, inline three-cylinder engine that got all of 70 horsepower. A contemporary blurb about the car begins with "Goodness, gracious, great gobs of gimmickry," and goes on to say that "We can't imagine where you would take this car for repairs, but we are certain that the one mechanic in the world who can fix it lives in a very expensive house." The transmission didn't win any fans, but the ECVT and the car have been largely forgotten, while Subaru played the long game and now you'll find its vastly improved Lineartronic CVT on six of the eight models it sells.

What next for Alan Mulally?

Alan Mulally has emerged as a hero when it comes to American manufacturing. He came to Ford in 2006 after serving as head of Boeing's commercial aircraft division, streamlined operations, sold off the costly elements of its Premier Automotive Group and saved Ford from having to be bailed out by the federal government like its cross-town rivals Chrysler and General Motors did. But as we reported mere days ago, he's widely expected to step down from the chief executive's office at Ford shortly.
So what's next for one of the most successful executives in the business? Hard to say, but don't expect Mulally to disappear into retirement. Though he didn't ultimately take the top job at Microsoft, industry insiders expect to see him in another influential position - likely as a board director or even chairman of another company. (We say "another company" and not Ford because while Bill Ford may have stepped aside as CEO to bring Mulally on board in the first place, we don't see him giving up his chairmanship of the board also.)
Mulally has likely already lined up his next move, and could either announce what that move will be as soon as Ford confirms Mark Fields as his successor, or could wait awhile. Insiders speculate that he could leverage his transportation and aerospace experience into a position at General Electric or a major airline, his manufacturing expertise to benefit a company like Procter & Gamble or his management skills at a consultancy firm.