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Morgan Stanley predicts radical auto industry consolidation

A lack of technological foresight and changing economic conditions may bring dramatic consolidation to the auto industry in the next 15 to 20 years. Industry analyst Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley believes that the number of major automakers could go from around 30 today to as few as 6 in that time. However, a catastrophe is avoidable.
Jonas' argument is that the world has more automakers than it can sustain. He contends that too many of them are more focused on next year's models than attempting to adapt to technological change. Without looking forward, they won't survive.
Tesla might be the lighthouse leading automakers away from the rocks. While still quite small, it has disrupted the status quo and shown that there's more than one way to prepare for new innovations. "With proper execution, Detroit may thank Tesla Motors for being that stiff board in the back of the head right when they needed it," said Jonas to The Detroit News.

For Tesla, the energy-storage company, the magic is in batteries

Tesla Motors Chief Elon Musk has always been a big-picture guy, and the company's chief technology officer appears to be following suit. JB Straubel, who was a keynote speaker at the Joint Venture Silicon Valley symposium near the automaker's Northern California home base recently, says the company is just as much an energy-storage company as a car maker. And he said the rate of battery-technology improvement shows no signs of slowing down, according to Green Tech Media. Straubel estimated that battery performance has improved about 40 percent during the five years between the debuts of the Tesla Roadster and the Model S. Additionally, battery density has doubled during the past decade and continues to ramp up fairly steeply. He noted that further near-term improvements will come not from the size and shape of the cell, but from improved cathode and anode materials. Those energy improvements won't just help the cars. Tesla uses a two-megawatt-hour battery pack to supply as much as 10 percent of the peak energy used at the company's factory in Fremont, CA, and will double the size of that battery-powered energy capacity within the next few months, Straubel says. Automakers like Tesla and Nissan are licking their proverbial chops at the prospect of substantially improved battery performance paired with declining battery costs as more and more lithium-ion battery packs get produced. Late last year, Navigant Research estimated that lithium-ion battery costs would fall by almost two-thirds by 2020, down to a low $180 per kilowatt hour. That should make electrified powertrains price-competitive with conventional vehicles, as electric vehicles could then command a price premium as low as $2,000 compared to their gas-powered brethren.

100 Tesla Model S hatchbacks to get NCE convertible conversions

The folks Newport Convertible Engineering have made a specialty out of taking coupes and sedans and converting them into convertibles. Sometimes this results in absolutely weird creations like a Range Rover droptop, but its latest project is significantly greener. The company has developed hard and soft top conversions for the Tesla Model S, and they are already quite popular too. An investor in China has ordered 100 of them.
NCE has been working on creating the two versions of the convertible Model S for the last six months, and it involves a lot more than just cutting the roof off. "Some sections needed restructured," said Al Zadeh, the company's CEO, to Autoblog about the changes made to maintain rigidity. A soft-top conversion costs $29,000 and a hard-top $49,000. In addition to these prices, buyers must supply a donor vehicle. Production is due to start in July in California, Dubai, and Barcelona, Spain.
This might be just the beginning for NCE's convertible Model S. Zadeh says that the company has made an inquiry with Tesla about whether it could supply 5,000 cars for conversion to satisfy predicted demand. He will release more details on the project "when the time is right." Scroll down for NCE's official announcement of the 100-car order.