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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

Here's why automakers roll out those Texas-themed pickup trucks

Every year, automakers with a full-size truck link make a big show of the Texas State Fair, usually involving a reveal of a new model. Sometimes they show a whole new truck, and other times a special edition centered on the Lone Star state. While some people might write this off as a quirk of the industry, others might be wondering, "What's the big deal with Texas?" As it turns out, part of the big deal with Texas is big truck sales. According to Dave Sullivan, product analysis manager at AutoPacific, Texas buys more trucks than any other state in the country. It's not a small margin either. Edmunds.com, one in five trucks sold in the US are sold in Texas. The state also accounts for 15 percent of the country's large truck sales, which is more than twice that of California, the second largest truck market in America. Even when you break down sales only in Texas, trucks are a huge piece of the pie - Sullivan says that a quarter of new vehicle sales in Texas are trucks. One in five trucks sold in the US are sold in Texas. But it's not just sales that make truck builders give attention to Texas. As Sullivan explained, "Pickups are life in Texas." Both he and Hugh Milne, marketing and advertising manager for the Chevy Silverado line, said that trucks are key fixtures in Texas society, as both work trucks and luxury vehicles (or Texas Cadillacs as Milne called them). Milne said Texas is so important in the truck market that if you want to be successful in the rest of the country, "you've got to be successful in Texas." As for the State Fair, it has become a prime location for reveals in part because of the importance of the Texas market and because of how big the fair is. Milne also revealed that the State Fair also hosts its own auto show, so it's an ideal venue for a vehicle introduction. So there you have it. Why do truck builders obsess over Texas? It's because Texas obsesses over trucks. When you have one market that loves your product that much, you give it the attention it deserves. Related Video: Image Credit: Donovan Reese via Getty Images Auto News Marketing/Advertising Chevrolet Ford RAM Truck f-150 texas state fair

China's Great Wall confirms its interest — in Jeep, or all of FCA

HONG KONG/SHANGHAI — Chinese automaker Great Wall Motor reiterated its interest in Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV on Tuesday, but said it had not held talks or signed a deal with executives at the Italian-American automaker. China's largest sport utility vehicle manufacturer made a direct overture to Fiat Chrysler on Monday, with an official saying the company was interested in all or part of FCA, owner of the Jeep and Ram truck brands. Automotive News first reported the news, quoting Great Wall Motor President Wang Fengying as saying she planned to contact FCA to discuss acquiring the Jeep brand specifically. Those comments sent FCA shares higher but also raised questions over the ability of China's seventh-largest automaker by sales to buy larger Western rival FCA, or even Jeep, which some analysts value at as much as one-and-a-half times FCA. Great Wall sought to dampen speculation on Tuesday. It confirmed it had studied Fiat Chrysler, but said there was "no concrete progress so far" and "substantial uncertainty" over whether it would eventually bid. "The company has not built any relationship with the directors of FCA nor has the company entered into any discussion or signed any agreements with any officer of FCA so far," the company said in an English-language stock exchange filing. It did not give further detail. Fiat Chrysler stock dipped on the statement on Tuesday. Great Wall said trading in its Shanghai-listed shares would resume on Wednesday after having been suspended. Fiat Chrysler declined to comment on Great Wall's statement. On Monday, it said it had not been approached and was fully committed to implementing its current business plan. FLUSHING OUT RIVALS? Great Wall Motor, which was early to spot China's love of SUVs, had revenue of $14.8 billion last year and sold 1.07 million vehicles - but that compares with FCA's 2016 revenue of 111 billion euros ($130.6 billion). Analysts said Great Wall would need to raise both debt and equity to complete any deal, meaning its chairman Wei Jianjun could lose majority control. One possible scenario, according to analysts at Jefferies, would see Wei keeping a roughly 30 percent stake, while Great Wall would raise $10-$14 billion in debt and $10 billion in equity - hefty for a group currently worth just $16 billion. Ultimately, politics could be the clincher.