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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

VW bringing fuel cell concept to LA Auto Show

Amid the flurry of hydrogen announcements from Toyota and Honda last night, Volkwagen has something to add: a new hydrogen fuel cell concept vehicle. This will be the first VW hydrogen fuel cell vehicle in many years – remember the Tiguan Hy-Motion back in 2008? – and it comes as a bit of a surprise. First written up by the German publication Wirtschaft Woche, VW is going to have the prototype car (not pictured) available at the ride and drive at the Los Angeles Auto Show later this week. We don't yet know what kind of vehicle will sport the hydrogen powertrain, but our money's on a Golf variant. We'll see soon enough when we get to Los Angeles. What's interesting is that there have been a number of not-so-mixed messages out of the VW executive ranks when it comes to hydrogen vehicles. VW's Japanese president, Shigeru Shoji, said in September that, hydrogen fuel cells, "may fly within Japan, but not globally." Last year, VW's electrification head Rudolf Krebs said that "hydrogen mobility only makes sense if you use green energy." Also last year, VW CEO Martin Winterkorn said it's basically impossible to build hydrogen vehicles at a "reasonable cost." Nonetheless, we're going to see a new VW H2 concept soon. Thoughts?

VW may move production because of Russia's cutoff of natural gas

Volkswagen AG is exploring ways to counter a shortage in natural gas, including shifting production around its network of global facilities, signaling how the energy crisis unleashed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to upend EuropeÂ’s industrial landscape. Volkswagen, EuropeÂ’s biggest carmaker, said Thursday that reallocating some of its production was one of the options available in the medium term if gas shortages last much beyond this winter. The company has major factories in Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which are among European countries most reliant on Russian gas, as well as facilities in southern Europe that source energy from elsewhere. “As mid-term alternatives, we are focusing on greater localization, relocation of manufacturing capacity, or technical alternatives, similar to what is already common practice in the context of challenges related to semiconductor shortages and other recent supply chain disruptions,” Geng Wu, VolkswagenÂ’s head of purchasing, said in a statement.  RussiaÂ’s decision to throttle gas supplies to Europe has raised concerns that Germany might be forced to ration its fuel. Recent news that gas storage levels hit 90% ahead of schedule has soothed fears of acute shortages this winter, but Germany faces a challenge in replenishing depleted reserves next summer without contributions from Russia. Southwestern Europe or coastal zones of northern Europe, both of which have better access to seaborne liquefied natural gas cargoes, could be the beneficiaries of any production shift, a Volkswagen spokesman said by phone. The Volkswagen group already operates car factories in Portugal, Spain and Belgium, countries that host LNG terminals. Labor hurdles To be sure, any major production shift away from EuropeÂ’s biggest economy would face significant hurdles. VW has some 295,000 employees in Germany and worker representatives account for around half the companyÂ’s 20-member supervisory board. Any shift in production would likely involve a limited number of vehicles rather than wholesale factory shutdowns. While gas supplies for VWÂ’s plants are currently secured, the company has identified potential savings at its European sites to cut gas consumption by a “mid-double-digit percentage,” said Michael Heinemann, managing director of VWÂ’s power-plant unit. Still, the carmaker said it was concerned about the effect high gas prices could have on its suppliers.