1974 Volkswagen Karmann Ghia 1.6l on 2040-cars

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Automakers face reality of EVs' cost — to jobs, and their bottom line

Related: We obsessively covered the Frankfurt Motor Show — here's our complete coverage FRANKFURT, Germany — European car bosses gathering for the Frankfurt auto show are beginning to address the realities of mass vehicle electrification, and its consequences for jobs and profit, their minds focused by government pledges to outlaw the combustion engine. As the latest such announcement by China added momentum to a push for zero-emissions motoring, Daimler, Volkswagen and PSA Group gave details about their electric programs that could give policymakers some pause. Planned electric Mercedes models will initially be just half as profitable as conventional alternatives, Daimler warned — forcing the group to find savings by outsourcing more component manufacturing, which may in turn threaten German jobs. "In-house production is almost irrelevant to the consumer," Daimler boss Dieter Zetsche told reporters on the eve of the Frankfurt Motor Show, in the midst of a German election campaign in which automotive jobs have loomed large. The company set a target of saving 4 billion euros ($4.8 billion) by 2025 to help fund the cost of its electric cars. "Daimler is the first company to state explicitly how much electric vehicles are going to hurt margins," said Bernstein analyst Max Warburton. "It was brave to go first — but of course it won't be the last." Volkswagen, for its part, said it was seeking new global supplier contracts to source 50 billion euros ($60 billion) of electric car content including batteries, which are not yet manufactured competitively in Europe. "A company like Volkswagen must lead, not follow," Chief Executive Matthias Mueller told reporters. VW diesel emissions-cheating exposed by U.S. regulators in 2015 triggered global public outrage, dozens more investigations into test-rigging by the wider industry and a push by some lawmakers to ban diesel and eventually all engines. TIGHTENING NOOSE Tesla shares jumped nearly 6 percent on Monday after a Chinese minister said it was a question of when, not if, Beijing bans fossil-fuel cars, tightening the noose around the combustion engine. France and Britain have promised its outright abolition by 2040. But PSA, the maker of Peugeots and Citroens, said it was concerned about the risks if consumers were left behind in the rush, and a new generation of battery cars does not sell.

How VW's hyper-efficient XL1 will influence the next Golf

In 2007, the European Union mandated fleet average CO2 emissions of 158.7 g/km. For 2015, that figure will drop to 130 g/km, and the target for 2020 is an ambitions 95 g/km. Thanks to some German politicking, that target will be phased in from 2020 to 2024, but it will still apply to 80 percent of passenger cars in that first year. In US miles per gallon, that's the equivalent of going from about 35 mpg to 42 mpg to 57 mpg. The current Volkswagen Golf is rated from 85 g/km of CO2 to 190 g/km depending on model - and zero for the e-Golf, so for the next-generation MkVIII hatch due in 2019, to meet the goal, Volkswagen engineers will need to introduce a bunch of new tricks. According to a report in Autocar, VW be mining its hyper-efficient XL1 for some of them.
Predictions for the next Golf include a variable-compression engine, an electric flywheel and an electric turbo, along with taking greater advantage of coasting. Volkswagen could be getting help from Audi with the electric turbo and variable-compression engine and electric turbo, with Audi already having shown off the former and brand technical boss Ulrich Hackenberg confirming the VW Group is working on the latter. It's possible the flywheel system could also have the mark of The Four Rings: Autocar mentions a British system that Volvo is testing, but the R18 e-tron Quattro racer has been using one for years.
The need for such features is because the company won't be able to net enough future gains from just aerodynamic improvements and advanced materials. As price will be a factor (the regulations are expected to "add hundreds of euros to the cost of building a car"), adding much more aluminum or carbon fiber is an unlikely option. We're told the next generation won't be longer or wider than the current car, and being Europe's most popular model, VW doesn't want to make a big bet on futuristic aero, but the report says the MkVIII will "likely" have "the most aerodynamic treatment yet seen on a production vehicle," the area where lessons learned from the XL1 will truly be seen.

Recharge Wrap-up: Jaguar Land Rover talks EVs, Batteries should be modular

A new study out of Germany suggests adopting a modular approach to battery offerings in plug-in hybrid and extended range electric vehicles. Automakers could offer the same car with different battery sizes (and different costs, accordingly) to drivers depending on their driving ranges. This would optimize the total cost of ownership for various drivers better than the current approach. Developing a modular battery design and offering appropriate batteries for different customers "is the key for electric powertrains to meet customer expectations and become cost competitive against conventional technologies," according to the report from the Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center. Learn more at Green Car Congress. Jaguar and Land Rover are looking to offer more electric driving from their vehicles. Wolfgang Ziebart, head of product development for Jaguar Land Rover, said in an interview that its hybrid system is being tweaked for more electric power and "downsized" combustion. He also said the likely target market for EVs would be second and third vehicles, rather than primary vehicles for urban driving. Within that market, Europeans look for something smaller, while American drivers lean toward larger luxury vehicles for their second car. Ziebart uses the Tesla Model S as an example of American tastes, and compares its size to that of the Jaguar XJ. Read more at Automotive News Europe. Thailand will likely approve a Volkswagen factory as early as next week. A German newspaper suggests that Thailand's Board of Investment is set to greenlight the plant, which is planned for a site near the Port of Bangkok. Thailand is a relatively large and growing auto manufacturing country, which seeks to be a major producer of eco-friendly vehicles. The country's "Eco2" program would provide incentives to Volkswagen if it builds clean cars and meets certain production targets. Read more at Reuters. Formula E has chosen Sky Deutschland for broadcasting rights in the German market. The deal includes television rights, as well as online broadcasting. Sky Deutschland has 3.8 million subscribers in Germany and Austria. Showing the races on Germany's largest pay television provider should help generate interest for the series, particularly the Berlin ePrix - the inaugural season's penultimate race - scheduled for May 30, 2015. Read more at the Formula E website.