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Ex-Fiat exec: VW diesel scandal will hurt plug-in hybrids

It doesn't sound right at first blush, but former Fiat executive and noted diesel-powertrain expert Rinaldo Rinolfi thinks that plug-in hybrid sales may be more impacted by the VW diesel-emissions scandal than diesel sales. Rinolfi, who worked for Fiat for 40 years, told Automotive News Europe, said that the Euro 6 emissions rules that went into effect in 2015 have already increased diesel-engine production costs enough to raise prices and ultimately flatten demand. By the end of the decade, diesel-vehicle sales will settle in at a 40-percent market share of new European vehicles, and that was going to happen with or without the scandal. "Every carmaker has found ways to achieve fuel consumption and emissions results that have progressively diverged from the real driving conditions." - Rinaldo Rinolfi Makers of plug-in hybrids have more to lose, though, because every PHEV maker has figured out a way to keep emissions figures artificially low, Rinolfi said. Under New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) standards, PHEVs can be tested part of the time with the electric motor in action, meaning emissions get driven down to 30 percent to 40 percent less than real-world figures. With the VW scandal pushing regulators to use real-world figures, those PHEV emissions numbers are expected to rise substantially. To a lesser extent, hybrid emissions figures are also tested as artificially low. "Over the years, even without defeat devices, every carmaker has found ways to achieve fuel consumption and emissions results that have progressively diverged from the real driving conditions the customer experiences," Rinolfi said in the Automotive News Europe interview. Rinolfi is a little sunnier about compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, estimating that CNG emissions are as much as 25 percent lower compared to conventional vehicles. As for battery-electrics, he's not so optimistic, estimating that there needs to be at least a tenfold improvement in energy efficiency for EVs to be truly competitive with conventional vehicles. "I've been waiting for a true breakthrough for the past 25 years, but I've not seen it yet," Rinolfi said about EVs in the Automotive News Europe interview. Related Video: News Source: Automotive News Europe-sub.req.Image Credit: Arnd Wiegmann / Reuters Green Fiat Volkswagen Diesel Vehicles Electric Hybrid diesel emissions scandal nedc

Only VW, Volvo are doing enough to electrify in Europe, study says

Among major carmakers, Volkswagen and Volvo are doing enough to electrify their vehicle lineups in Europe, and the EU needs to set tougher CO2 emission limits if it wants to meet Green Deal targets, according to a climate group's study. Sales of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids almost tripled last year, boosted by tighter emission standards and government subsidies. This summer, the European Union is expected to announce more ambitious CO2 targets; by 2030, the average CO2 emissions of new cars should be 50% below 2021 levels, versus the existing target of 37.5%. Volkswagen aims to have 55% group-wide BEV sales in Europe by 2030, while Swedish carmaker Volvo, owned by China's Geely says its lineup will be fully electric by then. VW ID4 front three quarter dark View 19 Photos Based on IHS Markit car production forecasts, according to the study from European campaign group Transport and Environment (T&E), Volkswagen and Volvo have "aggressive and credible strategies" to shift from fossil-fuel cars to electric vehicles. Others like Ford Motor Co have set ambitious targets, "but lack a robust plan to get there," T&E said. Ford plans an all-electric lineup in Europe by 2030. T&E said BMW, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), Daimler AG and Toyota rank the worst as they have low BEV sales, have "no ambitious phase-out targets, no clear industrial strategy, and an over-reliance in the case of BMW, Daimler and Toyota on hybrids." JLR, owned by India's Tata Motors, says its luxury Jaguar brand will be all-electric by 2025, but has been less specific about electrification of its higher-volume Land Rover brand. BMW and Daimler have been reluctant to set hard deadlines for phasing out fossil-fuel cars. T&E said even if carmakers meet their targets, in 2030 BEV sales could be 10 percentage points below those needed to meet the EU's Green Deal — which targets net zero emissions by 2050. Rather than a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030, based on carmakers' existing production plans, the EU could set more ambitious targets, T&E said - an up to 35% reduction in CO2 emissions from new cars by 2025, around 50% by 2027 and up to 70% in 2030. "Targets need to be gradually tightened so that carmakers not only commit to phasing out fossil fuels, but develop a strategy that gets them there on time," Julia Poliscanova, T&E senior director for vehicles and e-mobility, said in a statement.

Submit your questions for Autoblog Podcast #366 LIVE!

We're set to record Autoblog Podcast #366 tonight, and you can check out the topics below, drop us your questions and comments via our Q&A module, and don't forget to subscribe to the Autoblog Podcast in iTunes if you haven't already done so. To take it all in live, tune in to our UStream (audio only) channel at 10:00 PM Eastern tonight.
Discussion Topics for Autoblog Podcast Episode #366
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