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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Volkswagen Routan dead, pour out a sippy cup for your little homies

America's minivan wolfpack has just gotten smaller by one. According to Automotive News, Volkswagen officials have confirmed what we've suspected for some time - the Routan is dead. Essentially a lightly reworked version of the Dodge Grand Caravan, the Routan actually hasn't been rolling off of Chrysler's Windsor, Ontario production line at all this year, but VW had yet to confirm its discontinuation. However, Jonathan Browning, CEO of VW America, has reportedly admitted that the Routan is being axed, with remaining units expected to be funneled into corporate functions for "internal purposes."
The move isn't unexpected - the Routan has never been a big seller, with just 57,650 examples moved since sales began in 2008 - peak yearly sales totaled under 16,000 units, and that was back in 2010. And while many have talked of the minivan segment shrinking, Automotive News points out that the segment actually grew 14 percent last year to 597,118 units, though it should be noted that most segments have been on sales upticks as the US economy chugs out of its recession.
So, is volume-crazy Volkswagen prepared to pass on large family vehicle sales? Probably not - the German automaker has signaled that it plans to build a three-row crossover in North America soon, and we wouldn't be surprised if it looks an awful lot like the Crossblue Concept from January's Detroit Auto Show - minus the fancy plug-in diesel powertrain.

VW bringing fuel cell concept to LA Auto Show

Amid the flurry of hydrogen announcements from Toyota and Honda last night, Volkwagen has something to add: a new hydrogen fuel cell concept vehicle. This will be the first VW hydrogen fuel cell vehicle in many years – remember the Tiguan Hy-Motion back in 2008? – and it comes as a bit of a surprise. First written up by the German publication Wirtschaft Woche, VW is going to have the prototype car (not pictured) available at the ride and drive at the Los Angeles Auto Show later this week. We don't yet know what kind of vehicle will sport the hydrogen powertrain, but our money's on a Golf variant. We'll see soon enough when we get to Los Angeles. What's interesting is that there have been a number of not-so-mixed messages out of the VW executive ranks when it comes to hydrogen vehicles. VW's Japanese president, Shigeru Shoji, said in September that, hydrogen fuel cells, "may fly within Japan, but not globally." Last year, VW's electrification head Rudolf Krebs said that "hydrogen mobility only makes sense if you use green energy." Also last year, VW CEO Martin Winterkorn said it's basically impossible to build hydrogen vehicles at a "reasonable cost." Nonetheless, we're going to see a new VW H2 concept soon. Thoughts?