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VW chair says component cost decrease keeps him confident of EV success

Volkswagen AG is in the middle of implementing a comprehensive electric vehicle strategy, one that we've been documenting for a long time. The Group stands ready to offer dozens of plug-in vehicles in the coming years if it feels there is sufficient demand and believes that selling a million EVs in Germany by 2020 is reasonable. That would be a solid number, but remember that VW sold over 5,923,000 passenger cars around the world last year, and the group as a whole sold over 9.7 million. At the company's annual Media Conference and Investor Conference in Berlin recently, the chairman of the board of VW AG - surrounded by some decidedly non-green examples of the VW Group's vehicles (some absurd new Bugatti, for example) - took some time to put the company's EV plans into focus. The upshot is that Dr. Martin Winterkorn is still guiding his electromobility ship into new waters, saying that "many more [plug-in] models will follow." Winterkorn said there are three main reasons he is confident in the ability of VW (and Audi and Porsche, at the very least) to push EV sales upward. Batteries are getting better, he said, and if the ranges can be extended, then customers are happy. But the real secret lies in reducing component costs. He said (as translated): It is important to look at the cost of the components: the battery technology, the electric motor and the electric components. Whenever you go into volume production, you of course have economies of scale. In two to three years' time, if we are able to achieve the goals we are setting for ourselves with cost and reach sufficient volume, I do believe that we can achieve two to three percent [market share] within VW Group. So, hitting a million EVs by 2020 is reachable. With the e-Golf and the e-Up off to excellent sales starts, we're willing to be confident as well.

Volkswagen's emissions deception brings more scrutiny to entire industry

Volkswagen's emissions deceptions have hurt the entire auto industry's credibility with federal regulators. Days after the world's largest automaker confessed to installing software that circumvents emissions standards on approximately a half-million diesel vehicles in the United States, a top federal safety official says the company's dishonesty will force government officials to view the entire auto industry with heightened skepticism. "Your first question has to be, 'How extensive is it through the whole industry?' You don't know if it's a unique case or if other people are doing it," said Mark Rosekind, administrator of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. "The unfortunate part is you're not going to worry about one person. It's extended to the entire industry. If they did it, someone else could do it." "They tell you one thing, you question it." - Mark Rosekind Rosekind's agency doesn't bear responsibility in investigating the emissions cheating. That falls to the Environmental Protection Agency, which served Volkswagen with a Notice of Violation on Friday that alleged the company's diesel vehicle equipped with 2.0-liter engines contained a defeat device that allowed the cars to detect when emissions testing was taking place. In normal driving situations, the cars spewed pollution at as much as 40 times allowable thresholds. But because of the emissions cheating, NHTSA wonders if the German automaker has been cutting corners on safety standards or disingenuous on safety-related discussions. Speaking at an auto-industry event in Novi, MI, on Tuesday, Rosekind indicated no information can now be taken at face value. He used the phrase "Question assumptions" several times in discussing the case. "Of course, question assumptions means, 'Is there some other safety element there that we're now going to have to investigate?" he said. As it did in the General Motors ignition-switch probe, the Department of Justice has initiated an investigation of Volkswagen and the House Committee on Energy and Commerce announced it will hold hearings on the cheating. For NHTSA, criminal cases complicate matters. The agency core function is to regulate safety, not conduct criminal investigations. But in the early going, their investigators may be the first ones to spot wrongdoing.

Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.