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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Skoda plans big investment into electric cars as part of rebound effort

PRAGUE — Czech carmaker Skoda, part of the Volkswagen Group, said on Wednesday it would invest around 2.5 billion euros over the next five years on future technologies, with more than half going to electric vehicle investment. The Czech Republic's largest exporter is hoping for a rebound in 2021 from a global car sales drop but faces uncertainty over the coronavirus pandemic and a semiconductor shortage rattling the industry. "This year is likely to be another big challenge," finance director Klaus-Dieter Schuermann said. "We expect Skoda Auto's group performance to improve, with sales revenue significantly above the level of last year." Skoda reported on Wednesday a 54.5% drop in 2020 operating to 756 million euros ($894 million). Sales revenue dropped 13.8% to 17.1 billion euros. Global deliveries remained above 1 million cars for a seventh straight year despite a 19% drop after production outages at the outset of the pandemic and a fall in China, its biggest single market. Chief Executive Thomas Shaefer said the car company was managing the semiconductor shortage "but it will follow us for awhile" and the impact was not visible yet. Skoda's core market in Europe would be electric in the future, Shaefer said, although it was still not time to completely switch away from traditional models, which include the launch last year of a new generation of its flagship Octavia model. It has also started production of the all-electric Enyaq iV model, which is a version of Volkswagen's ID.4. Skoda plans investments of 1.4 billion euros into electromobility development as part of its five-year investment plan. Investments will also go into digitalization activities and plant modernization. Related video: Green Volkswagen Skoda Electric

VW to relax ambitious US sales targets?

The Volkswagen brand sold 407,704 cars last year, a 6.95-percent decline compared to 2012, and it's down a further 8.36 percent through the end of April 2014 compared to this time last year. In order to to put the sales football between its Strategy 2018 goal posts, the brand would need to add 100,000 more sales every year to achieve the lofty 800,000-unit target. Coming to grips with how unreasonable that is, VW US CEO Michael Horn has said, "For now, we have to have realistic targets."
The reasons for the brand's slow-down are imprecise, but lots of folks are throwing lots of reasons around. Last November, VW Group Chairman Ferdinand Piech told Bloomberg, "We understand Europe, we understand China and we understand Brazil, [but] we only understand the US to a certain degree so far." Analysts say the brand hasn't had midsize and compact SUV offerings, especially an overdue retail version of the CrossBlue, and the ones it does have are priced too high for their segments. It "didn't introduce enough new engines, or alternative technologies or model variants" for the Passat and Jetta. It devoted so many resources to China that the US market suffered. It was being outspent two-to-one on advertising by competitors. Its J.D. Power dependability ratings aren't high enough to overcome its past. It "has never really taken the US customer seriously." And so on.
There's still no official admission of defeat concerning the target, but reading between the lines there are some VW execs that appear to accept it won't happen short of some deus ex machina. Still,