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Which will Dieselgate hurt more, Volkswagen or US diesels?

The most damning response to the news Volkswagen skirted emissions regulations for its diesel models may have actually come from the Los Angeles Times. On Saturday, the Times published an editorial titled "Did Volkswagen cheat?" The answer was undoubtedly yes. When you can't drive down Santa Monica Boulevard without seeing an average of one VW TDI per block, the following words are pretty striking: "... Americans should be outraged at the company's cynical and deliberate efforts to violate one of this country's most important environmental laws." VW has successfully cultivated a strong, environmentally conscious reputation for its TDI Clean Diesel technology, especially in states where emissions are strictly controlled. A statement like that is like blood all over the opinion section of the Sunday paper. The effect on VW's business, even Germany's financial health, was already felt Monday when the company's shares plummeted 23 percent in morning trading. The statement on Sunday from VW CEO Dr. Martin Winterkorn says "trust" three times. That probably wasn't enough in nine sentences. Writers over the weekend have compared VW's crisis to one at General Motors 30 years ago, when it was the largest seller of diesel-powered passenger cars until warranty claims over an inadequate design and ill-informed technicians effectively pulled the plug on the technology at GM. In a sense, VW is in the same boat as GM because it has fired a huge blow into its own reputation and that of diesels in passenger cars. And just as automakers like Jaguar Land Rover, BMW and, ironically, GM, were getting comfortable with it again in the US. VW of America was already knee-deep in its other problems this year. Its core Jetta and Passat models are aging and it needs to wait more than a year for competitive SUVs that American buyers want. The TDIs were the only continuous bright spot in the line and on the sales charts. Even as fuel prices fell and buyers shunned hybrids, VW managed to succeed with diesels and show that Americans actually care about and accept the technology again. Fervent TDI supporters might actually lobby for that maximum $18 billion fine to VW. I've personally convinced a number of people to look at a TDI instead of a hybrid. Perhaps not so much for stop-and-go traffic, but I know buyers who liked the idea that a TDI drove like a normal car and wasn't packed with batteries.

VW to relax ambitious US sales targets?

The Volkswagen brand sold 407,704 cars last year, a 6.95-percent decline compared to 2012, and it's down a further 8.36 percent through the end of April 2014 compared to this time last year. In order to to put the sales football between its Strategy 2018 goal posts, the brand would need to add 100,000 more sales every year to achieve the lofty 800,000-unit target. Coming to grips with how unreasonable that is, VW US CEO Michael Horn has said, "For now, we have to have realistic targets."
The reasons for the brand's slow-down are imprecise, but lots of folks are throwing lots of reasons around. Last November, VW Group Chairman Ferdinand Piech told Bloomberg, "We understand Europe, we understand China and we understand Brazil, [but] we only understand the US to a certain degree so far." Analysts say the brand hasn't had midsize and compact SUV offerings, especially an overdue retail version of the CrossBlue, and the ones it does have are priced too high for their segments. It "didn't introduce enough new engines, or alternative technologies or model variants" for the Passat and Jetta. It devoted so many resources to China that the US market suffered. It was being outspent two-to-one on advertising by competitors. Its J.D. Power dependability ratings aren't high enough to overcome its past. It "has never really taken the US customer seriously." And so on.
There's still no official admission of defeat concerning the target, but reading between the lines there are some VW execs that appear to accept it won't happen short of some deus ex machina. Still,

Russian auto boomtown grinds to halt over Ukraine sanctions

Thousands of auto workers have been furloughed and food prices are soaring as Western sanctions pummel the small Russian city of Kaluga and its flagship foreign carmakers, with more sanctions likely to come. The Kaluga region, 190 kilometers (120 miles) southwest of Moscow, says it has attracted more than 1.3 trillion roubles ($15 billion) in investment, mostly foreign, since 2006. But Western sanctions imposed in recent weeks after Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine have exacerbated lingering component shortages and halted production at two flagship car plants, Germany's Volkswagen and Sweden's Volvo. A third, the PSMA Rus plant that is a joint venture between Stellantis and Mitsubishi and employs 2,000, may halt production soon due to a lack of parts, Stellantis' chief executive said last Thursday. "It is not clear what will happen. They don't give us any concrete information," said Pavel Terpugov, a welder at the PSMA Rus plant. Terpugov said he needs twice as much money to buy groceries than before the sanctions. Analysts have forecast Russian inflation could soar to 24% this year, while the economy may shrink to 2009 levels. The United States and Europe are weighing more sanctions against Russia after Ukraine accused Russian forces of civilian killings in northern Ukraine, where a mass grave was found in Bucha, outside Kyiv. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation" and the Kremlin categorically denied any accusations related to the murder of civilians, including in Bucha. One source of hope for some in Kaluga, with its 325,000 residents, is the West may be reluctant to hurt its own companies. "Does it make sense to impose sanctions on its own plant and lose money?" said Valery Uglov, an auto mechanic at the Volkswagen plant. "Does it make sense to lose the Russian market?" "We hope to return to work as soon as possible and everyone will have confidence in the future again," Uglov said. Volkswagen, whose factory employs 4,200 people, in early March suspended operations. A spokeswoman said production remained frozen. Volvo Group, which employs over 600 people to build trucks, also suspended production. Even before the sanctions, Russian car sales had contracted from 2.8 million units from when the Volkswagen factory opened in 2007 to 1.67 million units last year, damaged by both sanctions after the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the COVID-19 pandemic.