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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Toyota reclaims global sales crown, GM and VW not far behind

TheDetroitBureau.com reports Toyota has retaken the global sales crown. The Japanese automaker turned out 9.75 million vehicles last year, putting it just ahead of General Motors, with 9.29 million vehicles. Volkswagen, meanwhile, filled out the podium by building 9.1 million units in 2012.
Still, Toyota numbers fell just below projections the automaker made earlier in the year, due largely to a fierce territorial dispute between Japan and China that has seen mainland buyers shun Japanese goods. But the news marks a substantial comeback for Toyota. The company fell to third place in the global production race in 2011 after tragic earthquake and tsunami caused several plant closures.
In Japan, Toyota enjoyed a sales increase of 35 percent over the previous year, while the company's worldwide sales jumped by 23 percent thanks in part to new additions to the Prius line. The automaker is forecasting yet another increase for 2013, with the company projecting to reach 9.91 million units this year. Neither Volkswagen nor GM have released their own projections just yet.

VW invests in QuantumScape for potentially fireproof, long-range EV batteries

VW might be getting ready to push its plug-in technology in a big way thanks to an investment in the battery startup QuantumScape. Key point: the solid-state battery is said to be fireproof and will offer tremendous range advantages. Details are not abundant yet, but according to Bloomberg, VW of America bought a five-percent stake in QuantumScape (and has an option to raise its holding). The tech could "more than triple" the EV range of VW, Porsche and Audi plug-in vehicles as soon as the middle of 2015, according to unnamed sources that Bloomberg talked to. Former Stanford University researchers started QuantumScape in 2010. The bare-bones QuantumScape website (there's nothing there other than some contact information) doesn't offer many hints about what's happening at the company, but GigaOM's Katie Fehrenbacher notes that QuantumScape is licensing tech from the "All Electron Battery" project at Stanford a few years ago. It certainly sounds amazing: [It's] a completely new class of electrical energy storage devices for electric vehicles that has the potential to provide ultra-high energy and power densities, while enabling extremely high cycle life. The All-Electron Battery stores energy by moving electrons, rather than ions, and uses electron/hole redox instead of capacitive polarization of a double-layer. ... If successful, this project will develop a completely new paradigm in energy storage for electrified vehicles that could revolutionize the electric vehicle industry. If that's what's coming in a future e-Golf or E-Tron, sign us up.