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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Import pickup truck-killing Chicken Tax to be repealed?

After over 50 years, the so-called Chicken Tax may finally be going the way of the dodo. Two pending trade deals with countries in the Pacific Rim and Europe potentially could open the US auto market up to imported trucks, if the measures pass. Although, it still might be a while before you can own that Volkswagen Amarok or Toyota Hilux, if ever. The 25-percent import tariff that the Chicken Tax imposes on foreign trucks essentially makes the things all but impossible to sell one profitably in the US, which lends a distinct advantage to domestic pickups. Both the Trans-Pacific Partnership with 12 counties and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the European Union would finally end the charge. According to Automotive News though, don't expect new pickups to flood the market, at least not immediately. These deals might roll back the tariff gradually over time, and in the case of Japan, it could be as long as 25 years before fully free trade. Furthermore, Thailand, a major truck builder in Asia, isn't currently part of the deal, and any new models here would still need to meet safety and emissions rules, as well. Automotive News gauged the very early intentions of several automakers with foreign-built trucks, and they weren't necessarily champing at the bit to start imports. Toyota thinks the Hilux sits between the Tundra and Tacoma, and Mazda doesn't think the BT-50 fits its image here. Also, VW doesn't necessarily want to bring the Amarok over from Hannover. There is previous precedent for companies at least considering bringing in pickup trucks after the Chicken Tax's demise, though. The Pacific free trade deal could be done as soon as this fall, while the EU one is likely further out, according to Automotive News. Given enough time, the more accessible ports could allow some new trucks to enter the market.

Audi rumored to buy Alfa Romeo, officials deny it

For more than two years, Volkswagen has been making public statements about its willingness to buy Alfa Romeo and quadruple the Italian brand's sales, and for just as long, Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne has replied with some version of "Mr. Piëch, drop it." According to a report in Ward's Auto, all that jousting might be over: it claims that sources close to both Marchionne and Audi CEO Rupert Stadler admit that the two are in talks for Audi to buy not just Alfa Romeo, but a production plant in Italy. In fact, a final deal could possibly include partsmaker Magnetti Marelli.
Against that backdrop, a report by German news weekly Stern quotes a Fiat spokesmen as saying it doesn't comment on rumors and an Audi rep has said flatly that "There is no substance in the news." If a sale is being arranged, the timing would seem to point to how eager Fiat is to raise cash to complete its major initiatives. Even though Alfa Romeo continues to delay its return to the US, it just showed off the production version of the 4C at the Geneva Motor Show (shown above) and said that preferred Fiat dealerships here would get them. Then there's Alfa's recently concluded deal with Mazda to develop a roadster based on the next generation MX-5 Miata - a deal that would seem to help both the Italian and Japanese brands.
The monetary issues are troublesome, though. Fiat is taking a beating in the European market and its weak-kneed balance sheet is delaying gotta-have-it products like the Jeep Cherokee. Fiat has been talking to banks about getting money to buy the rest of Chrysler and those financial institutions have also raised issues about debt and cash reserves, and the nasty game of chess Fiat is playing with the United Auto Workers (and now the court system about the portion of Chrysler it doesn't own) could end up blowing another hole in Marchionne's plans. It is possible that this could finally have convinced Fiat to at least see how serious Audi's parent company, Volkswagen, is about buying Alfa Romeo. Or it could be just another rumor.