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Automakers face reality of EVs' cost — to jobs, and their bottom line

Related: We obsessively covered the Frankfurt Motor Show — here's our complete coverage FRANKFURT, Germany — European car bosses gathering for the Frankfurt auto show are beginning to address the realities of mass vehicle electrification, and its consequences for jobs and profit, their minds focused by government pledges to outlaw the combustion engine. As the latest such announcement by China added momentum to a push for zero-emissions motoring, Daimler, Volkswagen and PSA Group gave details about their electric programs that could give policymakers some pause. Planned electric Mercedes models will initially be just half as profitable as conventional alternatives, Daimler warned — forcing the group to find savings by outsourcing more component manufacturing, which may in turn threaten German jobs. "In-house production is almost irrelevant to the consumer," Daimler boss Dieter Zetsche told reporters on the eve of the Frankfurt Motor Show, in the midst of a German election campaign in which automotive jobs have loomed large. The company set a target of saving 4 billion euros ($4.8 billion) by 2025 to help fund the cost of its electric cars. "Daimler is the first company to state explicitly how much electric vehicles are going to hurt margins," said Bernstein analyst Max Warburton. "It was brave to go first — but of course it won't be the last." Volkswagen, for its part, said it was seeking new global supplier contracts to source 50 billion euros ($60 billion) of electric car content including batteries, which are not yet manufactured competitively in Europe. "A company like Volkswagen must lead, not follow," Chief Executive Matthias Mueller told reporters. VW diesel emissions-cheating exposed by U.S. regulators in 2015 triggered global public outrage, dozens more investigations into test-rigging by the wider industry and a push by some lawmakers to ban diesel and eventually all engines. TIGHTENING NOOSE Tesla shares jumped nearly 6 percent on Monday after a Chinese minister said it was a question of when, not if, Beijing bans fossil-fuel cars, tightening the noose around the combustion engine. France and Britain have promised its outright abolition by 2040. But PSA, the maker of Peugeots and Citroens, said it was concerned about the risks if consumers were left behind in the rush, and a new generation of battery cars does not sell.

When Android Automotive goes in the dash, Google wins — and automakers lose data

You've gotta hand it to Google for the way the Silicon Valley tech giant has made indelible inroads into the car on multiple fronts. The most obvious is with its pioneering self-driving car technology that's caused car companies to get their act together on autonomous vehicles — and also collaborate with Google. Google has more directly extended its influence and data-mining capabilities into the car with its Android Auto smartphone-projection platform that most major automakers have adopted along with Apple's CarPlay. And now it's preparing to dig even deeper into dashboards by deploying its open-source operating system, Android Automotive, beginning with Audi and Volvo. Volvo recently announced that its next-generation Sensus infotainment system will run Android Automotive as an OS and include Google's Play Store for cloud-based content, Maps for navigation and Google Assistant for voice recognition, which can even command a car's climate control. By embedding Google in the dash, Volvo says owners will get an improved connected experience. "Bringing Google services into Volvo cars will accelerate innovation in connectivity and boost our development in applications and connected services," Volvo senior vice president of R&D Henrik Green said in a statement. "Soon, Volvo drivers will have direct access to thousands of in-car apps that make daily life easier and the connected in-car experience more enjoyable." Having Android Automotive onboard could benefit drivers — and provide a big win for Google, since it opens a deep and lucrative new data-mining vein for the company. But it's a wave of a white flag for car companies when it comes to delivering their own cloud-based content and services. It also represents a massive data giveaway and, for Audi, a reversal of earlier reservations about letting Google get too much access to car data. Not long after Android Auto and Apple CarPlay were introduced in 2014 and most automakers eagerly embraced the technologies, several German automakers second-guessed their decision when they realized what was at stake: data. At a conference in Berlin in 2015, Audi CEO Rupert Stadler said car owners "want to be in control of their data, and not subject to monitoring." A few months earlier, Stadler stated that "the data that we collect is our data and not Google's.

How VW's hyper-efficient XL1 will influence the next Golf

In 2007, the European Union mandated fleet average CO2 emissions of 158.7 g/km. For 2015, that figure will drop to 130 g/km, and the target for 2020 is an ambitions 95 g/km. Thanks to some German politicking, that target will be phased in from 2020 to 2024, but it will still apply to 80 percent of passenger cars in that first year. In US miles per gallon, that's the equivalent of going from about 35 mpg to 42 mpg to 57 mpg. The current Volkswagen Golf is rated from 85 g/km of CO2 to 190 g/km depending on model - and zero for the e-Golf, so for the next-generation MkVIII hatch due in 2019, to meet the goal, Volkswagen engineers will need to introduce a bunch of new tricks. According to a report in Autocar, VW be mining its hyper-efficient XL1 for some of them.
Predictions for the next Golf include a variable-compression engine, an electric flywheel and an electric turbo, along with taking greater advantage of coasting. Volkswagen could be getting help from Audi with the electric turbo and variable-compression engine and electric turbo, with Audi already having shown off the former and brand technical boss Ulrich Hackenberg confirming the VW Group is working on the latter. It's possible the flywheel system could also have the mark of The Four Rings: Autocar mentions a British system that Volvo is testing, but the R18 e-tron Quattro racer has been using one for years.
The need for such features is because the company won't be able to net enough future gains from just aerodynamic improvements and advanced materials. As price will be a factor (the regulations are expected to "add hundreds of euros to the cost of building a car"), adding much more aluminum or carbon fiber is an unlikely option. We're told the next generation won't be longer or wider than the current car, and being Europe's most popular model, VW doesn't want to make a big bet on futuristic aero, but the report says the MkVIII will "likely" have "the most aerodynamic treatment yet seen on a production vehicle," the area where lessons learned from the XL1 will truly be seen.