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Weekly Recap: Diesel scandal continues to fuel VW's woes

Volkswagen's woes continued this week when it was delisted from the Dow Jones Sustainability Index and stripped of awards. Senators are also lining up to advocate for criminal and civil action against the automaker, and its consumer reputation is in tatters. Put simply, it's been another rough period for VW. Despite this, the company eked out a sales gain of less than one percent in September, though that was well behind the overall market's performance. Sister brand Audi, which sells a diesel A3, was less affected, posting a 16-percent gain in September. Revelations that Volkswagen rigged millions of diesel-powered cars around the world didn't surface until September 18, so the full sales impact of the ongoing scandal won't likely be felt until October. Meanwhile, VW's image continues to take a beating, and an AutoPacific survey found only one in 14 vehicle owners have a positive opinion of the company. Before the scandal broke, three-quarters of respondents had a positive view of VW. The survey also found 64 percent don't trust Volkswagen, though the same number believe other companies are or may also be using cheating devices to pass emissions tests. "The reputation of diesels has been severely damaged, at least for the short term," Ed Kim, AutoPacific's vice president of industry analysis, said in a statement. Despite the lingering malaise, experts believe VW will recover, just as Toyota and General Motors eventually emerged from their own high-profile controversies. "Consumers have proven through numerous recalls that they are resilient and quickly return to their buying habits," Kim said. OTHER NEWS & NOTES Mazda to reveal sports car concept in Tokyo Mazda will bring a curvy sports car concept to the Tokyo Motor Show in October. The automaker is being especially coy with the details, only releasing the dark teaser shot that you see to the right and a cryptic statement that suggests the concept "condense[s] Mazda's entire history of sports-car development into a single model." Immediately, speculation abounded this is an RX-7 and RX-8 successor, though Mazda didn't specify what engine the concept will have. Reportedly, the company is still working on rotary engines. Mazda will have a Cosmo Sport 110S on its stand in Tokyo, which pioneered rotary technology in 1967. Read into that what you will. The Rock pitches Ford service Dwayne Johnson, also known as The Rock, is the new frontman for Ford service.

Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

VW makes $9.2B offer for rest of truckmaker Scania

Volkswagen owns or has controlling interests in three commercial truck operations: besides its own, VW began buying shares in Sweden's Scania in 2000 and now controls 89.2 percent of its shares and 62.6 percent of its capital, then bought into Germany's Man in 2006 - in order to prevent Man from trying to take over Scania - and now owns 75 percent of it. The car company has managed to work out 200 million euros in savings, but believes it can unlock a total of 650 million euros in savings if it takes outright control of Scania and can spread more common parts among the three divisions.
It has proposed a 6.7-billion-euro ($9.2 billion) buyout, but according to a Bloomberg report, Scania's minority investors don't appear inclined to the deal. Although effectively controlled by VW, Scania is an independently-listed Swedish company, and a profitable one at that: in the January-September 2013 period its operating profit was 9.4 percent compared to Man's 0.4 percent. Some of the other shareholders believe that Scania is better off on its own and will not approve the deal, some have asked an auditor to look into the potential conflict of interest between VW and Man, while some are willing to examine the deal and "make an evaluation based on what a long-term owner finds is good," which might not be just "the stock market price plus a few percent." The buyout will only be official assuming VW can reach the 90-percent share threshold that Swedish law mandates for a squeeze-out.
Many of the arguments against boil down to investors believing that Scania's Swedishness and unique offerings are what keep it profitable, and ownership by the German car company will kill that. (Have we heard that somewhere before?) If Volkswagen can buy that additional 0.8-percent share in Scania, perhaps its buyout wrangling with Man will give it an idea of what it's in for: "dozens" of minority investors in the German truckmaker have filed cases against VW, seeking higher prices for their shares. It is likely only to delay the inevitable, though. If VW is really going to compete with Daimler and Volvo in the truck market, it has to get the size, clout and savings to do so.