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Lincoln Aviator returns, VW ponders pickups, and Subaru Forester endures

NEW YORK – Volkswagen is taking a hard look at a pickup truck, the Lincoln Aviator is back, and you love old Subarus (we'll explain). The New York Auto Show returned last week with flair and a wide range of promising reveals. Let's break down some of the big news, plus a few things you might have missed. News: Ford is fortifying Lincoln with the Aviator SUV Views: Doing a mid-size SUV is obvious. Calling it the Aviator wasn't. I like it. Using Navigator design cues, this thing looks the part and should give Lincoln some energy and sales volume. Not playing in the midsize SUV segment has been a mistake for Ford's luxury brand, and the Aviator should fill a much-needed hole. Props to Lincoln for dusting off the Aviator name, most recently used on a rebadged Ford Explorer built in 2003-2005. It sounds classy and historic, like something from 1930s, even though it only dates to the tail end of the " Friends" era. Speaking of names, when the MKC gets a new one, Lincoln should dust off Zephyr, a moniker it actually used in the '30s and then briefly in the early 2000s. Why use the Aviator name? Jim Farley, Ford's president of global markets, said it's about reminding consumers that Ford has traditionally built strong SUVs. "I think in a way the legacy is falling in love with what we do best," he said. "We wanted to go back to our roots. We know how to do this well." Farley also said the Aviator could prove to be Lincoln's bestseller. The Aviator was well-received in New York, earning our Best in Show award and garnering cautiously optimistic reactions from some analysts. "Lincoln ran this experiment once before ... differences in the market conditions, stronger differentiation and appetite for utility vehicles may prove a different story for this Aviator," IHS analyst Stephanie Brinley said. View 19 Photos News: VW surprised the car world with the Atlas Tanoak pickup concept Views: Good move. VW should build this. The concept is based on a longer version of the Atlas platform and would take aim at the midsize truck segment. VW is using this prototype to "gauge the reactions" of automotive influencers, but make no mistake, the Tanoak is totally doable. Using Atlas bones and mechanicals punched up with rugged styling and some soft-road capability, the Tanoak would grow VW's portfolio in a smart way. The Atlas Cross Sport concept, also revealed in New York, signals that Atlas expansion is already underway.

VW to relax ambitious US sales targets?

The Volkswagen brand sold 407,704 cars last year, a 6.95-percent decline compared to 2012, and it's down a further 8.36 percent through the end of April 2014 compared to this time last year. In order to to put the sales football between its Strategy 2018 goal posts, the brand would need to add 100,000 more sales every year to achieve the lofty 800,000-unit target. Coming to grips with how unreasonable that is, VW US CEO Michael Horn has said, "For now, we have to have realistic targets."
The reasons for the brand's slow-down are imprecise, but lots of folks are throwing lots of reasons around. Last November, VW Group Chairman Ferdinand Piech told Bloomberg, "We understand Europe, we understand China and we understand Brazil, [but] we only understand the US to a certain degree so far." Analysts say the brand hasn't had midsize and compact SUV offerings, especially an overdue retail version of the CrossBlue, and the ones it does have are priced too high for their segments. It "didn't introduce enough new engines, or alternative technologies or model variants" for the Passat and Jetta. It devoted so many resources to China that the US market suffered. It was being outspent two-to-one on advertising by competitors. Its J.D. Power dependability ratings aren't high enough to overcome its past. It "has never really taken the US customer seriously." And so on.
There's still no official admission of defeat concerning the target, but reading between the lines there are some VW execs that appear to accept it won't happen short of some deus ex machina. Still,

VW pondering low-cost sub-brand for China?

More detail is being sketched into the Volkswagen Group's plan to launch a low-cost brand for emerging markets. Late last year a German report quoted a VW rep saying that the brand has been interested in building a no-frills car, the kind that would challenge Dacia and Datsun, for a while. With both Proton and Suzuki effectively out of the partnership picture, a report in Reuters suggests VW could go straight to China, developing a car with its joint venture partners and building and selling it there.
Officially, company CEO Martin Winterkorn said the issue of a model for emerging markets would be decided this year but VW isn't any closer to confirming any kind of plan for a car in its portfolio underneath the Up!, remarking to Reuters about the China possibility, "That's an issue we're currently looking at."