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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

EPA upping its game amid Volkswagen probe

In the wake of the Volkswagen emissions-cheating scandal, the Environmental Protection Agency vowed to crack down on the auto industry with renewed vigor. That process has started. Janet McCabe, the agency's assistant administrator, said Tuesday that the EPA has already obtained a range of vehicles for testing purposes and that its enforcement staff is working as quickly as possible to determine whether other automakers are gaming emission results. "That's another detail we'd rather be obscure about, so that we can make sure people don't know what we're doing." For now, she said the agency is focused on diesel vehicles. But the scope of the new examinations could broaden to include gasoline-powered cars. The renewed efforts could include more light-duty vehicles or focus on heavy-duty trucks. The testing procedures could use dynamometers or portable emissions equipment. Right now, pretty much everything is a possibility. "We're going to become unpredictable, we're upping our game and we're going to use the whole range of technology that we have," she said. That technology now includes a heavy-duty truck chassis dynamometer at the EPA's national Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory in Ann Arbor, MI. Officials unveiled the $3 million piece of equipment Tuesday and hailed it as the first of its kind in North America. A Freightliner Super Truck, which boosted its fuel efficiency to 12 miles per gallon with the help of a $40 million federal grant, rolled onto the dynamometer in a ribbon-cutting ceremony Tuesday. McCabe said the new dynamometer will allow the EPA to assess the performance of the entire truck – not just its engine – and help engineers test 18-wheel tractor trailers measure, hydrocarbons, greenhouse gases, carbon monoxide and more. In the past, it took about a week for engineers to remove an engine from a truck and prep it for testing. With the new equipment, drivers can open a garage door and drive the rigs straight onto the dynamometer. A wealth of new, real-time data will be helpful as the EPA works with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in planning for the second phase of the government's greenhouse gas emission and fuel-efficiency standards for medium and heavy-duty engines and vehicles – a process now underway. While there's been a crush of attention on Volkswagen's scheming to circumvent emissions test, in the real world, it's these medium and heavy-duty trucks that are the bigger polluters.

Which will Dieselgate hurt more, Volkswagen or US diesels?

The most damning response to the news Volkswagen skirted emissions regulations for its diesel models may have actually come from the Los Angeles Times. On Saturday, the Times published an editorial titled "Did Volkswagen cheat?" The answer was undoubtedly yes. When you can't drive down Santa Monica Boulevard without seeing an average of one VW TDI per block, the following words are pretty striking: "... Americans should be outraged at the company's cynical and deliberate efforts to violate one of this country's most important environmental laws." VW has successfully cultivated a strong, environmentally conscious reputation for its TDI Clean Diesel technology, especially in states where emissions are strictly controlled. A statement like that is like blood all over the opinion section of the Sunday paper. The effect on VW's business, even Germany's financial health, was already felt Monday when the company's shares plummeted 23 percent in morning trading. The statement on Sunday from VW CEO Dr. Martin Winterkorn says "trust" three times. That probably wasn't enough in nine sentences. Writers over the weekend have compared VW's crisis to one at General Motors 30 years ago, when it was the largest seller of diesel-powered passenger cars until warranty claims over an inadequate design and ill-informed technicians effectively pulled the plug on the technology at GM. In a sense, VW is in the same boat as GM because it has fired a huge blow into its own reputation and that of diesels in passenger cars. And just as automakers like Jaguar Land Rover, BMW and, ironically, GM, were getting comfortable with it again in the US. VW of America was already knee-deep in its other problems this year. Its core Jetta and Passat models are aging and it needs to wait more than a year for competitive SUVs that American buyers want. The TDIs were the only continuous bright spot in the line and on the sales charts. Even as fuel prices fell and buyers shunned hybrids, VW managed to succeed with diesels and show that Americans actually care about and accept the technology again. Fervent TDI supporters might actually lobby for that maximum $18 billion fine to VW. I've personally convinced a number of people to look at a TDI instead of a hybrid. Perhaps not so much for stop-and-go traffic, but I know buyers who liked the idea that a TDI drove like a normal car and wasn't packed with batteries.