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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Weekly Recap: BMW rolls out ambitious plug-in hybrid electric plan

"We believe that for the United States, this is going to be very important." – Julian Arguelles Let there be no doubt, BMW is serious about electric vehicles. The German automaker said this week it will make plug-in hybrid versions of all of its core models, an aggressive move that demonstrates its commitment to electric propulsion systems. BMW did not specify which vehicles will get the plug-in systems or provide a timeline for when they will arrive. But the announcement is clearly more than blustering, and the company revealed a 3 Series plug-in prototype this week at an event in France. BMW said the 3 Series uses a version of its 2.0-liter turbocharged four-cylinder engine (240 horsepower, 300 pound feet of torque) with an electric motor sandwiched between the engine and transmission in place of the torque converter. It has an all-electric range of 22 miles. A plug-in X5 with the same powertrain was also displayed alongside the 3 Series, though the X5 has been on the auto-show circuit for more than a year, including a recent stop in Los Angeles. Those two vehicles use "eDrive," and BMW's plans represent the first widespread transfer of its technology from development of the i3 and i8 models to more mainstream products. BMW said it's developing electric powertrains so they can be deployed rapidly across its range, and they are flexible enough to be used with fuel cells in future products. Enticingly, BMW is also working on a "Power eDrive" system, which debuted in a 5 Series GT concept at the event in France. This setup has two electric motors powered by a 20-kilowatt-hour battery pack, and when teamed with a four-cylinder turbo, pump out about 670 hp. Reinforcing BMW's commitment, the company will add more than 200 jobs at its factory in Dingolfing, Germany, to support electric-vehicle development. The moves come as BMW and other automakers diversify their portfolios while fuel economy and emissions regulations are getting tighter around the world. The United States has set a 54.5-mpg CAFE requirement for the 2025 model year. BMW said the electric vehicles were developed with an eye toward the US market, its government policies and its wide-ranging commuting styles. "We believe that for the United States, this is going to be very important," spokesman Julian Arguelles said. Ben Scott, a senior analyst in London with automotive research firm IHS, said BMW's moves are expensive – but necessary – to keep pace with the market.

Submit your questions for Autoblog Podcast #317 LIVE!

We record Autoblog Podcast #317 tonight, and you can drop us your questions and comments regarding the rest of the week's news via our Q&A module below. Subscribe to the Autoblog Podcast in iTunes if you haven't already done so, and if you want to take it all in live, tune in to our UStream (audio only) channel at 10:00 PM Eastern tonight.
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