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GM, Ford, Honda winners in 'Car Wars' study as industry growth continues

General Motors' plans to aggressively refresh its product lineup will pay off in the next four years with strong market share and sales, according to an influential report released Tuesday. Ford, Honda, and FCA are all poised to show similar gains as the auto industry is expected to remain healthy through the rest of the decade. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch study, called Car Wars, analyzes automakers' future product plans for the next four model years. By 2020, 88 percent of GM's sales will come from newly launched products, which puts it slightly ahead of Ford's 86-percent estimate. Honda (85 percent) and FCA (84 percent) follow. The industry average is 81 percent. Toyota checks in just below the industry average at 79 percent, with Nissan trailing at 76 percent. Car Wars' premise is: automakers that continually launch new products are in a better position to grow sales and market share, while companies that roll out lightly updated models are vulnerable to shifting consumer tastes. Though Detroit and Honda grade out well in the study, many major automakers are clumped together, which means large market-share swings are less likely in the coming years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the industry will top out with 20 million sales in 2018 and then taper off, perhaps as much as 30 percent by 2026. Not surprisingly, trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers will be the key battlefield in the next few years, Car Wars says. FCA will launch a critical salvo in 2018 with a new Ram 1500, followed by new generations of the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra in 2019, and then Ford's F-150 for 2020, according to the study. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said the GM trucks could be pulled ahead even earlier to 2018, prompting Ford to respond. "This focus on crossovers and trucks is a great thing for the industry," Murphy said. Cars Wars looks at Korean (76 percent replacement rate) and European companies more vaguely (70 percent), but argues their slower product cadence and lineups with fewer trucks puts them in weaker positions than their competitors through 2020. Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Featured Gallery 2016 Chevrolet Silverado View 11 Photos Image Credit: Chevrolet Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota study FCA

Toyota sees Camry share loss despite predicting increasing sales

Toyota may be set to lose share the midsize sedan market. While speaking with Automotive News, Toyota North America CEO Jim Lentz said that if his company kept pace with the current swell in the market for family four doors, Toyota would need to sell around 500,000 Camry models. "I'm not sure we can do much more than 400 [thousand] today," Lentz said.
But that doesn't mean Camry sales are shrinking - on the contrary, Lentz thinks Toyota will likely sell more Camry units in 2013 than it did in 2012, it's just that the company isn't keeping pace with segment's current explosion in popularity. Industry wide, midsized sedan sales have increased by 20 percent. "Are we going to lose [Camry] share? Probably so," Lentz said, "but we will continue to grow in raw volume."
Toyota sold 404,886 Camry units last year, and the company just revised its 2013 sales objective from 2.18 million units earlier this year to 2.2-million plus units, so while things are looking up for the brand and Camry sales may be on the rise, Toyota may not have the muscle to keep up its share in the sedan segment. Whether that's because of a production bottleneck or a predicted sales ceiling isn't clear. We've got a call in and will update this news item if/when we learn more.

Toyota maintains world's largest automaker crown, GM and VW close behind

Toyota still holds the title of World's Largest Automaker. The Japanese automaker ceded the claim to General Motors in 2011 following a series of natural and man-made disasters that stifled production in Asia. Production is back up to full speed and, coupled with the introduction of a new Camry midsize sedan, Toyota retook the title in 2012 and has so far been able to keep it by selling 2.43 million vehicles in the first quarter of 2013.
The race is still tight - General Motors reports sales of 2.36 million vehicles, earning it the second spot globally with Volkswagen's 2.27 million sales nabbing the German automaker third place. It's not all smooth sailing for Toyota, either, as the brand's first-quarter figures were down 2.2 percent when compared to last year. GM posted a 3.6-percent gain and VW managed a 5.1-percent gain over the same period.
Sales in China may be a deciding factor as to which automaker performs best in 2013. Toyota's figures were down 13 percent in China. Meanwhile, GM and VW are continuing their upward trajectories in the crucial Chinese market.