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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Toyota Camry could lose No. 1 sedan spot next year [w/video]

Eleven months after Toyota claimed the 2012 sales crown a couple of months early thanks to the Camry, the headlines this year have been quite a bit different to last. Even though the Camry remains the best selling car so far in 2013 and its volume has increased year-on-year, it has lost market share due to the 20-percent sales explosion in the midsize segment. That means people are buying more of the competitor offerings like the Honda Accord, Nissan Altima and Ford Fusion - the Altima, in fact, outsold the Camry by 100 units in March.
In July it was reported that Toyota was upping Camry incentives and fleet sales to keep its lead and that dealer inventory was climbing as, again, competitors got better at fighting the champion. In August Ford doubled down on production of the Fusion, adding a line in Flat Rock, MI to keep up with demand.
Bloomberg has a report looking at the numbers behind the Camry's dominance, as well as what appears to be a recorded group interview with Toyota USA CEO Jim Lentz, and wonders aloud whether the Camry will be able to hold its top spot in 2014. Barring catastrophe it has this year locked up, being more than 30,000 sales ahead of the next-best seller as of the end of August, but it has done so with higher incentives and lower transaction prices than its competitors. According to Strategic Vision the Camry's consideration rate among consumers has also declined by a percentage point, while the consideration rate for the Accord and Fusion has increased by one point and two points, respectively.

Toyota sold a million hybrids in last nine months, 6M since 1997

Toyota's first hybrid model – the Prius – went on sale in 1997 in Japan. It took 14 years for the company to see a cumulative total of three million hybrids (a mark reached in March 2011). Today, Toyota announced that its global sales figures of all of its gas-electric models (and there are a lot of them now, including ones we've barely heard of here in the US, like the Crown Majesta or the Harrier Hybrid) have reached six million. Toyota calculates that all those hybrids have saved 41 million tons of CO2 emissions from entering the atmosphere. Toyota's ever-increasing hybrid sales pace means the company sold as many in the last three years as it did in the first fourteen. As you can see in our chart, the trendline shows that we'll hit the next-million mark in short order. In fact, Toyota says that it sold a million hybrids in the last nine months, the shortest time it has ever taken the automaker to sell that many hybrids. Part of the reason is that there are 24 hybrid Toyota and Lexus models available around the world, and Toyota says another 15 will be coming in the next two years. Anyone want to guess when Toyota will hit seven million? August? Worldwide Sales of Toyota Hybrids Top 6 Million Units Toyota City, Japan, January 15, 2014-Toyota Motor Corporation announces that cumulative global sales of its hybrid vehicles topped the 6 million unit mark as of December 31, 2013, reaching 6.072 million units1. The latest million-unit milestone was achieved in the fastest time yet for Toyota, taking just nine months. Helping mitigate the environmental effects of vehicles is a priority at Toyota. Based on its belief that environment-friendly vehicles can only truly have a positive impact if they are widely used, Toyota has endeavored to encourage the mass-market adoption of hybrid vehicles. As of this month, Toyota sells 24 hybrid passenger car models and one plug-in hybrid model in approximately 80 countries and regions around the world. Furthermore, within the next two years, Toyota will launch a total of 15 new hybrid vehicles worldwide, including the new "Harrier Hybrid" in Japan on January 15 and the new "Highlander Hybrid" in the United States in the near future. Toyota will continue augmenting its product lineup even further and increasing the number of countries and regions where it sells hybrid vehicles.