1985 Toyota Celica Supra Hatchback 2-door 2.8l No Reserve on 2040-cars

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Automakers not currently promoting EVs are probably doomed

Okay, let's be honest. The sky isn't falling – gas prices are. In fact, some experts say that prices at the pump will remain depressed for the next decade. Consumers have flocked to SUVs and CUVs, reversing the upward trend in US fuel economy seen over the last several years. A sudden push into electric vehicles seems ridiculous when gas guzzlers are selling so well. Make hay while the sun shines, right? A quick glance at some facts and figures provides evidence that the automakers currently doubling down on internal combustion probably have some rocky years ahead of them. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is a prime example of a volume manufacturer devoted to incremental gains for existing powertrains. Though FCA will kill off some of its more fuel-efficient models, part of its business plan involves replacing four- and five-speed transmissions with eight- and nine-speed units, yielding a fuel efficiency boost in the vicinity of ten percent over the next few years. Recent developments by battery startups have led some to suggest that efficiency and capacity could increase by over 100 percent in the same time. Research and development budgets paint a grim picture for old guard companies like Fiat Chrysler: In 2014, FCA spent about $1,026 per car sold on R&D, compared with about $24,783 per car sold for Tesla. To be fair, FCA can't be expected to match Tesla's efforts when its entry-level cars list for little more than half that much. But even more so than R&D, the area in which newcomers like Tesla have the industry licked is infrastructure. We often forget that our vehicles are mostly useless metal boxes without access to the network of fueling stations that keep them rolling. While EVs can always be plugged in at home, their proliferation depends on a similar network of charging stations that can allow for prolonged travel. Tesla already has 597 of its 480-volt Superchargers installed worldwide, and that figure will continue to rise. Porsche has also proposed a new 800-volt "Turbo Charging Station" to support the production version of its Mission E concept, and perhaps other VW Auto Group vehicles. As EVs grow in popularity, investment in these proprietary networks will pay off — who would buy a Chevy if the gas stations served only Ford owners? If anyone missed the importance of infrastructure, it's Toyota.

Automakers paying Chinese dealers for lower-than-expected sales

The Chinese dealers vs. foreign manufacturers story won't quit. It began with a story on the struggles faced by FAW-Toyota joint venture dealers, with supposedly 95 percent of the showrooms losing money, and 10 percent of them doing so poorly that they'd have to exit the business. The problem is mandated sales targets, most set when the country's economy was racing. Now that things have slowed, China's dealers are swimming in unsold cars and the costs to keep them. In the case of FAW-Toyota, dealers asked Toyota to hand over 2.2 billion yuan ($355 million) to help address the situation. That was followed by a report noting the issues that Honda, BMW, and Nissan dealers are having with the same issue, revealing that the Chinese Automobile Dealers Association (CADA) had taken the highly unusual step of writing to the Chinese government to complain. Now Reuters reports that CADA is not only pressing its case even harder, it's being open about it: it announced that BMW agreed to pay dealers 5.1 billion yuan ($820 million) to alleviate poor profits last year. Unnamed sources said Audi has thrown 2 billion yuan into the kitty for subsidies, and Daimler has contributed "about 1 billion yuan" to its dealers. The battle isn't just about 2014, but how business will be run in 2015 as well: Chinese Porsche dealers have requested the automaker lower its 2015 target of 64,000 cars, which would be a 40-percent increase on its 2014 sales of 46,931 vehicles. One analyst called it "shocking" that the CADA has taken its fight public, while CADA comments continue to imply that dealers have been railroaded to the cliff's edge without recourse. "Due to the difference in status," it's deputy secretary said, "individual dealers are not willing to, or don't dare to, talk frankly with the carmakers...." Both parties need one another, so they'll figure out a way to make it work – but that could mean acknowledging the Chinese market is behaving more like a mature one, not an emerging one. News Source: ReutersImage Credit: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images Earnings/Financials Audi BMW Porsche Toyota Car Dealers Luxury

Scion was slain by Toyota, not the Great Recession

Scion didn't have to go down like this. Through the magic of hindsight and hubris, it's easier to see what went wrong. And what might have been. What the industry should understand is this: Scion wasn't a losing proposition from the get-go. Its death is due to negligence and apathy. This is more than just the failure of a sub-brand. It's the failure of a company to deliver new and compelling products over an extended period of time. Toyota will point to the Great Recession as the reason it hedged its bets and withdrew funding for new vehicles, instead of using that as an opportunity to redouble efforts. This was as good as a death warrant, although myopically no one realized it at the time. Sadly, GM's Saturn experiment was a road map for this exact form of failure. No one at Toyota seemed to think the Saturn experience was worth protecting their experimental brand from. Or they weren't heard. Brands live and die on product. Somehow, Scion convinced itself that its real success metric was a youthful demographic of buyers. It seems like this was used to gauge the overall health of the brand. Look at the aging and uncompetitive tC, which Scion proudly noted had a 29-year-old average buyer. That fails to take into account its lack of curb appeal and flagging sales. Who cares if the declining number of people buying your cars are younger? Toyota is going to kill the tC thirteen years [And two indifferent generations ... - Ed.] after it was introduced. In that time, Honda has come out with three entirely new generations of the Civic. Scion wasn't a losing proposition from the get-go. Its death is due to negligence and apathy. At launch, the brand could have gone a few different ways. The xB was plucky, interesting, and useful – a tough mix of ephemeral characteristics – but the xA didn't offer much except a thin veneer of self-consciously applied attitude. That's ok; it was cute. Enter the tC, which managed to combine sporty pretensions with decent cost. It took on the Civic Coupe in the contest for coolness, and usually managed to win. More importantly, an explicit brand value early on was a desire to avoid second generations of any of its models, promising a continually evolving and fresh lineup. At this point, the road splits. Down one lane lies the Scion that could have been. After a short but reasonable product lifecycle, it would have renewed the entire lineup.