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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Toyota nearing $1B settlement of unintended acceleration criminal probe

According to those all-too-nebulous "people familiar with the matter," Toyota is close to a settlement with the US federal government to end a criminal probe over its long-running unintended acceleration fiasco. Though Toyota has never admitted guilt, the deal could reportedly crest a billion dollars and would likely include a criminal deferred prosecution agreement, and while we're not legal experts, The Wall Street Journal explains that such a deal would "[force Toyota] to accept responsibility while avoiding the potentially crippling consequences of federal criminal convictions."
The report from WSJ also suggests that Toyota is facing charges that it "made false or incomplete disclosures" to various government agencies regarding possible defects to its cars. Such charges may include mail and wire fraud violations. Toyota has already paid out fines totaling $66.2 million to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration because it failed to report safety defects in a timely manner.
This deal with the federal government is not related to the billion-dollar class-action settlement reached with Toyota owners over falling vehicle values, and it's also different from the roughly 400 lawsuits still in courts alleging personal injury of wrongful death due to cases of unintended acceleration. In other words, don't expect to hear the end of such courtroom verdicts and settlements anytime soon...

Automakers paying Chinese dealers for lower-than-expected sales

The Chinese dealers vs. foreign manufacturers story won't quit. It began with a story on the struggles faced by FAW-Toyota joint venture dealers, with supposedly 95 percent of the showrooms losing money, and 10 percent of them doing so poorly that they'd have to exit the business. The problem is mandated sales targets, most set when the country's economy was racing. Now that things have slowed, China's dealers are swimming in unsold cars and the costs to keep them. In the case of FAW-Toyota, dealers asked Toyota to hand over 2.2 billion yuan ($355 million) to help address the situation. That was followed by a report noting the issues that Honda, BMW, and Nissan dealers are having with the same issue, revealing that the Chinese Automobile Dealers Association (CADA) had taken the highly unusual step of writing to the Chinese government to complain. Now Reuters reports that CADA is not only pressing its case even harder, it's being open about it: it announced that BMW agreed to pay dealers 5.1 billion yuan ($820 million) to alleviate poor profits last year. Unnamed sources said Audi has thrown 2 billion yuan into the kitty for subsidies, and Daimler has contributed "about 1 billion yuan" to its dealers. The battle isn't just about 2014, but how business will be run in 2015 as well: Chinese Porsche dealers have requested the automaker lower its 2015 target of 64,000 cars, which would be a 40-percent increase on its 2014 sales of 46,931 vehicles. One analyst called it "shocking" that the CADA has taken its fight public, while CADA comments continue to imply that dealers have been railroaded to the cliff's edge without recourse. "Due to the difference in status," it's deputy secretary said, "individual dealers are not willing to, or don't dare to, talk frankly with the carmakers...." Both parties need one another, so they'll figure out a way to make it work – but that could mean acknowledging the Chinese market is behaving more like a mature one, not an emerging one. News Source: ReutersImage Credit: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images Earnings/Financials Audi BMW Porsche Toyota Car Dealers Luxury