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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Toyota and Suzuki partner up on autonomy with capital alliance

TOKYO — Toyota and Suzuki will take small equity stakes in each other, the Japanese car makers said on Wednesday, as they seek to develop newer technologies and meet sweeping changes upending the global auto industry. The tie-up is the latest example of automakers chasing scale to manage costs and boost development. Automakers — especially smaller ones like Suzuki — are struggling to meet the breakneck growth of an industry transformed by the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), ride-hailing and autonomous driving. Toyota will pay around 96 billion yen ($908 million) for a 4.94% stake in Suzuki, while Suzuki will acquire in the market around 48 billion yen ($454 million) worth of shares in Toyota. That is equivalent to 0.2% of Toyota's shares as of Wednesday's closing price, before the announcement. The companies said in a joint statement they intended to overcome challenges facing the industry by "building and deepening cooperative relationships in new fields while continuing to be competitors". They said they would strengthen technologies and products in which each of them specialize in. The firms had said in 2016 they were exploring a partnership, citing technological challenges and the need to keep up with industry consolidation. Earlier this year they said they would produce EVs and compact cars for each other. Automakers around the globe have been joining forces to slash development and manufacturing costs of new technology. Ford and Volkswagen have said they will spend billions of dollars to jointly develop electric and self-driving vehicles. Shares of Toyota and Suzuki closed little changed before the announcement. TOYOTA'S ORBIT The deal brings Suzuki firmly into Toyota' orbit, alongside Daihatsu, Hino Motors, Subaru, Mazda and Yamaha. Rival Nissan has an alliance with France's Renault, although that has been shaken following the ouster of former Chairman Carlos Ghosn, and with Mitsubishi Motors. Honda has a tie-up with General Motors. Toyota has been looking to expand scale in next-generation technology and said this year it would offer free access to patents for EV motors and power control units. It believes that move would help it cut by as much as half the outlays for expanded electric and hybrid vehicle components in the United States, China and Japan. Supplying rivals would greatly expand the scale of production for hardware.

Japan may aid carmakers facing U.S. tariff threat

TOKYO — Japan is considering giving carmakers fiscal support including tax breaks to offset the impact from trade frictions with the United States and a sales-tax hike planned for next year, government sources told Reuters on Wednesday. Going into a second round of trade talks with the United States on Sept. 21, Japan is hoping to avert steep tariffs on its car exports and fend off U.S. demands for a bilateral free trade agreement that could put it under pressure to open politically sensitive markets, like agriculture. "If the trade talks pile pressure on Japan's car exports, we would need to consider measures to support the auto industry," a ruling party official said on condition of anonymity because of sensitivity of the matter. The auto industry accounts for about 20 percent of Japan's overall output and around 60-70 percent of the country's trade surplus with the United States, making it vulnerable to U.S. action against Japanese exports. Japan's biggest automakers and components suppliers fear they could take a significant hit if Washington follows through on proposals to hike tariffs on autos and auto parts to 25 percent. Policymakers also worry that an increase in the sales tax from 8 percent to 10 percent planned for October 2019, could cause a slump in sales of big-ticket items such as cars and home. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has twice postponed the tax hike after the last increase from 5 percent in 2014 dealt a blow to private consumption, which accounts for about 60 percent of the economy. To prevent a pullback in demand after the tax hike, the government may consider large fiscal spending later when it draws up its budget for next year, government sources said. "One option may be to greatly reduce or abolish the automobile purchase tax," one of the government sources said. The government is also considering cuts in the automobile tax and automobile weight tax to help car buyers, the source added. Reporting by Izumi Nakagawa and Tetsushi KajimotoRelated Video: Image Credit: Getty Government/Legal Isuzu Mazda Mitsubishi Nissan Subaru Suzuki Toyota Trump Trump tariffs trade