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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Here's the 2017 Toyota 86: Don't call it a Scion

After we heard the bells toll for Scion yesterday, we told you that the Scion FR-S will transform into a Toyota. That's right: just a rebadging. The practical question is, which badge? The philosophical question, which we can't answer yet, is where it'll sit in the pantheon of front-engined, rear-drive Toyota sports cars, of which the Supra was the last one to visit our shores, from 1992 until 1998 in its fourth generation. And as if summoned by this conversation, this camouflaged prototype appeared. Our best guess is that this is going to be the US-bound, Toyota-badged version of the Subaru BRZ and all the other 86-badged variants: the Toyota 86 (in Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, and South Africa), Toyota GT86 (in Europe and New Zealand again), and Toyota FT86 (in Nicaragua and Jamaica). For simplicity's sake, let's call it a Toyota 86. Peer into the 86's swirly camo, and it looks like the car is going in for a light refresh. The lower intake in the front fascia, if it's representative of a production part, adopts a different shape and is considerably wider and narrower than either the BRZ or FR-S units. It also appears that the turn signal and its surround are reshaped, different than any of the current variants. Changes out back appear mild. The area around the license plate seems to be smoother, and there is likely a predictable light restyle of the bumper skin and defuser under the camo. We don't expect a significant power increase, and certainly not a turbocharger (sorry!), but crossing fingers wouldn't do any harm. Related Video:

Fuel cells will flop outside Japan, says VW

"It may fly within Japan, but not globally," VW's Shoji said.
It's long been battered into our beleaguered auto writer brains that the ultimate future source of motivation for tomorrow's cars and trucks is not gasoline, diesel, electricity, natural gas, propane or solar power - it's the hydrogen fuel cell. It's been the Next Big Thing since the start of Next Big Things.