2009 Toyota Tacoma Crew Cab 4x4 on 2040-cars

Auto blog

Japan could consolidate to three automakers by 2020

Sergio Marchionne might see his dream of big mergers in the auto industry become a reality, and an analyst thinks Japan is a likely place for consolidation to happen. Takaki Nakanishi from Jefferies Group LLC tells Bloomberg the country's car market could combine to just three or fewer major players by 2020, from seven today. "To have one or two carmakers in a country is not only natural, but also helpful to their competitiveness," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "Japan has just too many and the resources have been too spread out. It's a natural trend to consolidate and reduce some of the wasted resources." Nakanishi's argument echoes Marchionne's reasons to push for a merger between FCA and General Motors. Automakers spend billions on research and development, but their competitors also invest money to create the same solutions. Consolidating could conceivably put that R&D money into new avenues. "In today's global marketplace, it is increasingly difficult for automakers to compete in lower volume segments like sports cars, hydrogen fuel cells, or electrified vehicles on their own," Ed Kim, vice president of Industry Analysis at AutoPacific, told Autoblog. Even without mergers, these are the areas where Japanese automakers already have partners for development. Kim cited examples like Toyota and Subaru's work on the BRZ and FR-S and its collaboration with BMW on a forthcoming sports car. Honda and GM have also reportedly deepened their cooperation on green car tech. After Toyota's recent buyout of previous partner Daihatsu, Nakanishi agrees with rumors that the automotive giant could next pursue Suzuki. He sees them like a courting couple. "For Suzuki, it's like they're just starting to exchange diaries and have yet to hold hands. When Toyota's starts to hold 5 percent of Suzuki's shares, this will be like finally touching fingertips," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "I absolutely do believe that we are not finished seeing consolidation in Japan," Kim told Autoblog. Rising development costs to meet tougher emissions regulations make it hard for minor players in the market to remain competitive. "The smaller automakers like Suzuki, Mazda, and Mitsubishi are challenged to make it on their own in the global marketplace. Consolidation for them may be inevitable." Related Video:

Toyota expects hybrids will soon reach 20-percent sales volume globally

Hybrids have come quite a long way from their roots as dull, slow, boring ecomobiles. Today, Porsche sells three hybrid models, one of which is the amazing 918 Spyder. BMW will soon sell four, including a low-slung, two-seat sports car. Even Ferrari and McLaren, full-fledged hypercar manufacturers, are embracing the tech. And all of these cars are sold alongside the same sort of boring cars that popularized hybrids in the first place. According to Toyota Chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada, though, we should see an even bigger increase in the number of hybrid vehicles in the coming years.
"I foresee hybrid models pretty soon reaching 20 percent of global sales from about 13 percent to 14 percent now," Uchiyamada-san told Automotive News. Uchiyamada is the man behind the original Prius, which gives him some degree of authority on making predictions about hybrid adoption.
What's remarkable, though, is that the 20-percent figure doesn't include plug-in hybrids, just gas- and diesel-electric models. "Suppliers need higher volumes to slash costs of components specific to plug-in models, including batteries that should be bigger and more capable than the ones used in traditional hybrids," Uchiyamada told AN.

Japan plans real-world diesel emissions test after companies fail

Japan's transport ministry plans to start real-world diesel emissions tests after an experiment found four models from Toyota, Nissan, and Mitsubishi that produced more nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions than the nation's rules allow, according to The Japan Times. Regulators there usually only perform emissions checks in the lab. The VW diesel scandal has everyone double-checking their figures. Diesel versions of the Toyota Hiace van, Land Cruiser Prado, and Nissan X-Trail produced up to 10 times more NOx than allowed. The Mitsubishi Delica D:5 was up to five times over the limit, The Wall Street Journal reports. There was no evidence of defeat devices in the vehicles. Mazda performed well in the experiment, though. The CX-5 passed with nearly the same results on the road and in the lab. The Demio, better known as the Mazda2, did nearly as well with only slighter higher figures in the real world than in the controlled setting. The experimenters theorized the reason for the excessive emissions was that cold weather caused the engines' software to shut off the exhaust gas recirculation to prevent damage, according to the WSJ. However, this behavior also increased NOx production. Toyota, Nissan, and Mitsubishi don't have to worry about punishment from the transport ministry because this check was just an experiment. Their models already passed the mandated lab tests, which was the only requirement, according to The Japan Times. As governments begin greater real-world emissions tests, the results suggests diesels aren't very clean. A recent check in France found models from Ford, Renault, and Mercedes-Benz that didn't perform up to the standards. Regulators in India conducted similar evaluations and ordered VW to recall over 300,000 vehicles. Related Video: