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GM, Ford, Honda winners in 'Car Wars' study as industry growth continues

General Motors' plans to aggressively refresh its product lineup will pay off in the next four years with strong market share and sales, according to an influential report released Tuesday. Ford, Honda, and FCA are all poised to show similar gains as the auto industry is expected to remain healthy through the rest of the decade. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch study, called Car Wars, analyzes automakers' future product plans for the next four model years. By 2020, 88 percent of GM's sales will come from newly launched products, which puts it slightly ahead of Ford's 86-percent estimate. Honda (85 percent) and FCA (84 percent) follow. The industry average is 81 percent. Toyota checks in just below the industry average at 79 percent, with Nissan trailing at 76 percent. Car Wars' premise is: automakers that continually launch new products are in a better position to grow sales and market share, while companies that roll out lightly updated models are vulnerable to shifting consumer tastes. Though Detroit and Honda grade out well in the study, many major automakers are clumped together, which means large market-share swings are less likely in the coming years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the industry will top out with 20 million sales in 2018 and then taper off, perhaps as much as 30 percent by 2026. Not surprisingly, trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers will be the key battlefield in the next few years, Car Wars says. FCA will launch a critical salvo in 2018 with a new Ram 1500, followed by new generations of the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra in 2019, and then Ford's F-150 for 2020, according to the study. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said the GM trucks could be pulled ahead even earlier to 2018, prompting Ford to respond. "This focus on crossovers and trucks is a great thing for the industry," Murphy said. Cars Wars looks at Korean (76 percent replacement rate) and European companies more vaguely (70 percent), but argues their slower product cadence and lineups with fewer trucks puts them in weaker positions than their competitors through 2020. Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Featured Gallery 2016 Chevrolet Silverado View 11 Photos Image Credit: Chevrolet Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota study FCA

The ugly economics of green vehicles

It's fair to say that most consumers would prefer a green vehicle, one that has a lower impact on the environment and goes easy on costly fuel (in all senses of the term). The problem is that most people can't – or won't – pay the price premium or put up with the compromises today's green cars demand. We're not all "cashed-up greenies." In 2013, the average selling price of a new vehicle was $32,086. The truth is that most Americans can't afford a new car, green or not. In 2013, the average selling price of a new vehicle was $32,086. According to a recent Federal Reserve study, the median income for American families was $46,700 in 2013, a five-percent decline from $49,000 in 2010. While $32,000 for a car may not sound like a lot to some, it's about $630 a month financing for 48 months, assuming the buyer can come up with a $6,400 down payment. And that doesn't include gas, insurance, taxes, maintenance and all the rest. It's no wonder that a recent study showed that the average family could afford a new car in only one of 25 major US cities. AutoTrader conducted a recent survey of 1,900 millennials (those born between 1980 and 2000) about their new and used car buying habits. Isabelle Helms, AutoTrader's vice president of research, said millennials are "big on small" vehicles, which tend to be more affordable. Millennials also yearn for alternative-powered vehicles, but "they generally can't afford them." When it comes to the actual behavior of consumers, the operative word is "affordable," not "green." In 2012, US new car sales rose to 14.5 million. But according to Manheim Research, at 40.5 million units, used car sales were almost three times as great. While the days of the smoke-belching beater are mostly gone, it's a safe bet that the used cars are far less green in terms of gas mileage, emissions, new technology, etc., than new ones. Who Pays the Freight? Green cars, particularly alternative-fuel green cars, cost more than their conventional gas-powered siblings. A previous article discussed how escalating costs and limited utility drove me away from leasing a hydrogen fuel cell-powered Hyundai Tucson, which at $50,000, was nearly twice the cost of the equivalent gas-powered version. In Hyundai's defense, it's fair to ask who should pay the costs of developing and implementing new technology vehicles and the infrastructure to support them.

Toyota enters Rally America with modified RAV4

Rally cars are typically based on production hatchbacks, but Toyota is hitting the Rally America series this year with the RAV4 you see here. Entering the 2WD-Open Class (yes, it's front-wheel drive), this specially prepared RAV4 rally machine is being revealed at the Monster Energy Supercross Championship finale this weekend in Las Vegas. It retains the stock powertrain, including a 2.5-liter inline-four with the same 176 horsepower and 172 pound-feet of torque as the small crossover you can pick up at your local Toyota dealership. Only it's been unburdened of more than 500 pounds of excess weight and fitted with a roll cage, BFGoodrich all-terrain tires and an upgraded TEIN suspension at both ends. The resulting machine will be driven by Ryan Millen, son of the legendary Rod Millen and brother the Rhys. This isn't the first time Ryan is driving off-road for Toyota either, having won the Baja 1000 last year in a Toyota Tundra TRD Pro. Toyota Flexes RAV4 Muscle with New Rally America Series Entry Renowned Off-Road Driver Ryan Millen to Drive RAV4 Rally Car in 2015 Rally America 2WD-Open Class TORRANCE, Calif. (May 6, 2015) – Toyota unveiled its RAV4 rally car at the Monster Energy Supercross Championship finale this weekend at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas. Ryan Millen, who won the 2014 Baja 1000 in a Toyota Tundra TRD Pro, will drive the RAV4 rally vehicle at various rally races including some of the 2015 Rally America 2WD-Open Class season. The muscled-up RAV4 was unveiled live between races to all in attendance and was on display in the pits throughout the event. A RAV4 competing within a professional racing series is rare. It is even rarer to see the unibody-construction, Small-Sport Utility Vehicle (SSUV) go head-to-head with Rally America's modified street cars. Toyota's entry into Rally America is a modified 2015 Toyota RAV4 LE. The vehicle sports a stock transmission and a stock 2.5-liter, four-cylinder, double-overhead cam engine that pushes 176-horsepower and 172-pounds of torque. Millen and his crew removed more than 500 pounds of stock weight, while adding a roll cage, BFGoodrich all-terrain DOT 215/75R15 tires, and upgrading to a front and rear TEIN suspension. "I've driven just about everything Toyota has to offer," said Millen. "And I've been very impressed with the RAV4's tight, compact body and smooth handling.