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Japan could consolidate to three automakers by 2020

Sergio Marchionne might see his dream of big mergers in the auto industry become a reality, and an analyst thinks Japan is a likely place for consolidation to happen. Takaki Nakanishi from Jefferies Group LLC tells Bloomberg the country's car market could combine to just three or fewer major players by 2020, from seven today. "To have one or two carmakers in a country is not only natural, but also helpful to their competitiveness," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "Japan has just too many and the resources have been too spread out. It's a natural trend to consolidate and reduce some of the wasted resources." Nakanishi's argument echoes Marchionne's reasons to push for a merger between FCA and General Motors. Automakers spend billions on research and development, but their competitors also invest money to create the same solutions. Consolidating could conceivably put that R&D money into new avenues. "In today's global marketplace, it is increasingly difficult for automakers to compete in lower volume segments like sports cars, hydrogen fuel cells, or electrified vehicles on their own," Ed Kim, vice president of Industry Analysis at AutoPacific, told Autoblog. Even without mergers, these are the areas where Japanese automakers already have partners for development. Kim cited examples like Toyota and Subaru's work on the BRZ and FR-S and its collaboration with BMW on a forthcoming sports car. Honda and GM have also reportedly deepened their cooperation on green car tech. After Toyota's recent buyout of previous partner Daihatsu, Nakanishi agrees with rumors that the automotive giant could next pursue Suzuki. He sees them like a courting couple. "For Suzuki, it's like they're just starting to exchange diaries and have yet to hold hands. When Toyota's starts to hold 5 percent of Suzuki's shares, this will be like finally touching fingertips," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "I absolutely do believe that we are not finished seeing consolidation in Japan," Kim told Autoblog. Rising development costs to meet tougher emissions regulations make it hard for minor players in the market to remain competitive. "The smaller automakers like Suzuki, Mazda, and Mitsubishi are challenged to make it on their own in the global marketplace. Consolidation for them may be inevitable." Related Video:

Toyota NA CEO says his excitement for hydrogen sedan is rising

Toyota has an undeniable vested interest in seeing its hydrogen sedan succeed when it goes on sale in the US next year, so it's no surprise that the company's North American CEO, Jim Lentz, says that he's got more hope for the car now than ever before. And if we remember ways that others in the company, like Bob Carter, have loudly sung hydrogen's praises, we have to assume that positivity is running awful high in Torrance. In fact, Lentz said that the US side of the company is far more excited by the H2 car than colleagues in Japan. Speaking at The Wall Street Journal's ECO:nomics conference in Santa Barbara, CA this week, Lentz said: After we've seen the product, understand its range, its driving dynamics, its refueling, we're a lot more bullish than Japan - probably about fivefold more bullish. It's just a question of how many can be produced now. Well, we've driven this car, and we still feel that Toyota is placing a big bet on the technology. One important issue is cost, but Lentz would not say exactly how much the car costs to make or what it will be priced at. He did say, though, that the production cost has dropped by 95 percent from the $1 million price tag the car wore ten years ago. That hints at a production cost of around $50,000. Lentz also said he thinks it will take at least a decade for hydrogen vehicles to hit sales of 500,000 per year in the US. Speaking to Bloomberg, he said: Their acceptance could get off to a quicker start than the hybrids did. I think you're going to see a lot more marketing of the concept of fuel cell much sooner than you did for hybrids, because basically the whole industry is behind it.

Toyota to kill Scion brand [w/video]

Toyota Motor Co. said Wednesday it will kill its youth-oriented Scion brand, ending a 13-year experiment that attracted new customers but ultimately drained resources from the parent company. The FR-S sports car, iA sedan, and iM five-door hatchback will be re-badged as Toyotas starting in August for the 2017 model year, and the tC coupe will end production then. The C-HR displayed at the Los Angeles Auto Show will become a Toyota vehicle when it launches. Scion's 22 dedicated team members will be given opportunities to join Toyota. Toyota says it made the decision in response to customers' needs, noting it finds younger buyers want practicality in addition to the individualistic styling and features that Scion offered. Meanwhile, Toyota's own vehicles have gotten sportier, which the company says appeals to younger buyers. Scion claimed some successes, pointing to its average customer age of 36 years old, with 70 percent of its buyers new to Toyota. Scion sold more than a million vehicles since it launched. Its best year was 2006, when it sold 173,034 vehicles. Sales declined steadily in 2007-08 and then crashed in 2009 during the recession to 57,961 units, before bottoming out in 2010 with only 45,678 sales. "This isn't a step backward for Scion; it's a leap forward for Toyota. Scion has allowed us to fast track ideas that would have been challenging to test through the Toyota network," said Jim Lentz, founding vice president of Scion and now CEO, Toyota Motor North America. "I was there when we established Scion and our goal was to make Toyota and our dealers stronger by learning how to better attract and engage young customers. I'm very proud because that's exactly what we have accomplished." While Scion never recovered from its drastic sales decline, it served as a test bed for marketing and dealer tactics that helped its parent company. Scion tried out no-haggle pricing, a streamlined option plan (some cars had only two choices: color and transmission) and a pre-paid maintenance plan. "We appreciate our 1,004 Scion dealers and the support they've given the brand," said Bob Carter, Toyota senior vice president of automotive operations. "We believe our dealers have gained valuable insights and have received a strong return on their investment.