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Toyota's Bob Carter says far fewer stations needed in shift from gas to hydrogen

Toyota's Bob Carter has been talking about green cars for years, but it's only been recently that his comments have really caught widespread attention thanks to his disparaging remarks about electric vehicle supporters like Elon Musk and Carlos Ghosn and optimism about hydrogen. Speaking at the opening of the Chicago Auto Show this morning, Carter said that Toyota has claimed the "pole position on CAFE," thanks to its deep hybrid bench. The company's green car cred will continue to grow because of its upcoming hydrogen fuel cell car, due out next year. Carter is relentlessly optimistic: "I truly believe fuel cells will fundamentally change how we feel about transportation," he said. The reason, Carter said, is that a hydrogen infrastructure will be easier to install than people think. He referenced a study conducted by the University of California (which we've heard about before) that found that California would only need 68 hydrogen stations to refuel the roughly 10,000 H2 vehicles that Toyota hopes to sell in by 2016 or so. That's a lot more than the nine that exist today, but the state has already approved funding for 20 new stations by 2015 and then up to 100 by 2024. Then he said this: "If every vehicle in California ran on hydrogen, we could meet refueling logistics with only 15 percent of the nearly 10,000 gasoline stations currently operating in the state." "We could meet refueling logistics with only 15 percent of gasoline stations currently operating in CA" - Bob Carter This made us wonder: if the refueling time and range are roughly equivalent between hydrogen and gasoline – Toyota's hydrogen car is supposed to be able to go 300 miles on a five-minute fill-up - then why has the market decided that there should be 10,000 gas stations in California and why would 1,500 be sufficient for hydrogen? "If the locations are optimized," he said, "we don't need 10,000 stations." For example, at major intersections, instead of three gas stations, you'd really just need a single hydrogen one. "There are a lot of questions about the infrastructure, but it's coming. ... It's a hurdle that we've got to climb but it's not as steep as some may imagine." Toyota's Mike Michaels, the national manager, media and public affairs at Toyota Motor Sales, then stepped in to point out that there are gas stations closing and admitted that there might be too many gas stations in California.

Japan could consolidate to three automakers by 2020

Sergio Marchionne might see his dream of big mergers in the auto industry become a reality, and an analyst thinks Japan is a likely place for consolidation to happen. Takaki Nakanishi from Jefferies Group LLC tells Bloomberg the country's car market could combine to just three or fewer major players by 2020, from seven today. "To have one or two carmakers in a country is not only natural, but also helpful to their competitiveness," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "Japan has just too many and the resources have been too spread out. It's a natural trend to consolidate and reduce some of the wasted resources." Nakanishi's argument echoes Marchionne's reasons to push for a merger between FCA and General Motors. Automakers spend billions on research and development, but their competitors also invest money to create the same solutions. Consolidating could conceivably put that R&D money into new avenues. "In today's global marketplace, it is increasingly difficult for automakers to compete in lower volume segments like sports cars, hydrogen fuel cells, or electrified vehicles on their own," Ed Kim, vice president of Industry Analysis at AutoPacific, told Autoblog. Even without mergers, these are the areas where Japanese automakers already have partners for development. Kim cited examples like Toyota and Subaru's work on the BRZ and FR-S and its collaboration with BMW on a forthcoming sports car. Honda and GM have also reportedly deepened their cooperation on green car tech. After Toyota's recent buyout of previous partner Daihatsu, Nakanishi agrees with rumors that the automotive giant could next pursue Suzuki. He sees them like a courting couple. "For Suzuki, it's like they're just starting to exchange diaries and have yet to hold hands. When Toyota's starts to hold 5 percent of Suzuki's shares, this will be like finally touching fingertips," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "I absolutely do believe that we are not finished seeing consolidation in Japan," Kim told Autoblog. Rising development costs to meet tougher emissions regulations make it hard for minor players in the market to remain competitive. "The smaller automakers like Suzuki, Mazda, and Mitsubishi are challenged to make it on their own in the global marketplace. Consolidation for them may be inevitable." Related Video:

Japanese earthquakes send ripples through auto industry

The earthquakes since April 14 in Japan's Kumamoto Prefecture on the island of Kyushu are having aftershocks on the US auto industry, particularly for Toyota. The company shut down most of its factories in the country due to parts shortages, and the plants will be closed at least through April 23. "Decisions regarding recommencement of operation at plants in Japan will be made on the basis of availability of parts," the company said in a statement. According to Automotive News, Toyota's closed factories include a vast range of popular models in the US, including the Toyota Prius, Mirai, RAV4, 4Runner, Land Cruiser, Lexus ES, LS, IS, GS, RC, NX, RX, GX, and LX. The company's only sites in Japan that are still open build Hino trucks, Daihatsu models, and the Toyota Century limo. Toyota isn't yet sure whether these shutdowns could lead to vehicle shortages in the US. "As you can imagine, we are still reviewing the situation and working to learn more," company spokesperson Aaron Fowles told Autoblog. "While we know that production will be suspended in stages at most of our vehicle assembly facilities in Japan between April 18th and the 23rd, we do not know if they will continue production suspensions. Also, any effects to our inventory and/or sales have yet to be determined." He expects the automaker to know more in the coming days. Many of the affected Toyota plants aren't even in Kumamoto Prefecture, but major suppliers have factories in the region. For example, Aisin Seiki and Renesas Electronics both had to shutdown operations at plants in the area, according to Automotive News. Toyota isn't the only automaker affected. Nissan experienced a brief slowdown but was back to work on Monday, and Honda has suspended a motorcycle plant in the region until Friday. Mitsubishi had to close a production line due to the parts shortage, according to The Japan Times, but it didn't affect US models. "A supplier to our Mizushima plant has been impacted but they only supply an engine part for our mini car line. That line has been temporarily shut down due to that situation," spokesperson Alex Fedorak told Autoblog. "That same plant builds the Lancer and i-MiEv and there has been no impact to that line and production continues uninterrupted." Two major quakes hit Kumamoto Prefecture around Kumamoto city in the past week. The first on April 14 measured 6.4 magnitude, and a second on April 16 measured 7.3.