1977 Toyota Land Cruiser Fj40 on 2040-cars

Auto blog

Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Toyota preparing Scion-badged Nissan Juke fighter

As we've said on multiple occasions, the sub-compact crossover market is The Next Big Thing™. With that in mind, Toyota's lack of a competitor to the new breed of super-small, super-cute crossovers like the Nissan Juke, Honda HR-V, Mazda CX-3, and Jeep Renegade has been especially glaring. But as these photos show, the hole in the Japanese giant's lineup could soon be filled. Our spies captured this heavily disguised prototype testing in the deserts of the American southwest, signaling that Toyota is preparing to wade into the Nissan Juke's space by offering a tiny, but very heavily styled crossover of its own. Our spy photographers call the cute ute's look "aggressive," citing inspiration from the Toyota C-HR concept from the 2014 Paris Motor Show. Based on the meaty wheels and tires and what we can see through the camo, we're inclined to agree with their assessment. Underneath that sheet metal, we're told the new car rides on Toyota's new NGA platform. Like the Juke, a four-cylinder engine and continuously variable transmission will be on offer, although there's no telling whether Toyota will follow its rival's enthusiast beat and offer a six-speed manual version. What we find most interesting about all of this conjecture, though, is what it means for Scion, rather than its parent. Introducing a small crossover is the next logical step for Toyota's troubled sub-brand, and would serve as a delectable followup to the recently released iA sedan and iM hatch. Such a three-model lineup, when combined with the enthusiast-oriented FR-S, would transform Scion into a force to be reckoned with in the entry level space. Supporting this conjecture isn't too hard, either. As the spy photos show, this camo'd tester is being supported by a xB, the closest thing Scion (or its parent company, for that matter) have to a sub-compact CUV. It's unclear just when this new model will make its debut, but if Toyota hopes to make inroads into this popular new segment, this CUV will need to arrive before its extremely competent rivals can establish a solid foothold. Related Video:

How new car shortages may impact your buying experience

If you want further proof that the auto industry is bouncing back, look no further than the empty lots and forecourts of your local dealership. According to a story by The Wall Street Journal, continued high demand for mainstream cars is overtaxing automakers' ability to produce enough models. Several dealers interviewed for the story are reporting two-week supplies as opposed to the typical two-month allocations.
With sales expected to hit 1.4 million units when August numbers arrive shortly and incentive spending down to its lowest amount since January, these limited supplies are pushing prices even higher. For example, according to the WSJ, the average price of a Ford Fusion is up past $26,000. Unfortunately, it's difficult for manufacturers to increase production quickly. If it invests in its facilities, as many manufacturers have done, it risks wasting cash if growth suddenly slows. At the same time, the momentum gained over the past several years could be short lived if vehicle supplies continue to dwindle. "Manufacturers are in a precarious situation," notes Karl Brauer, a senior director at Kelley Blue Book.
Low interest rates and a wealth of desirable features are also allowing customers to purchase more expensive vehicles while justifying their higher overall price tags, a situation that is compounding supply shortages. Even now, during the annual end-of-summer clearance season, deals on new vehicles are remarkably difficult to come by. According to the report, the Toyota Corolla is in a self-inflicted state of shortage, as Toyota clears out inventory in anticipation of the new 2014 generation arriving in dealers. Ford's supplies should rebound as Fusion production comes on line at its Flat Rock, Michigan factory. The Chevrolet Impala, Honda Odyssey, Civic, and Accord and Subaru Forester are also facing shortages.