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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Recharge Wrap-up: Japan supports hydrogen, Fools against fuel cells, BlueIndy controversy

Japan hopes to expand the use of hydrogen energy by subsidizing fuel cell vehicles, according to The Japan News. The trade ministry plans to include the subsidies in its 2015 budget to coincide with the expected launch of Toyota's Fuel Cell Vehicle and the Honda FCEV hydrogen car. By jump-starting purchases of hydrogen cars, Japan hopes that innovation and mass-production will get a boost and the cost of fuel cell vehicles will be competitive with gasoline-powered models by the year 2025. Japan plans to have 100 hydrogen fueling locations operating by March 2016, and wants to halve the cost of building those stations by 2020. The amount of the subsidies has not yet been set. Investing website The Motley Fool isn't quite as optimistic as Japan about hydrogen cars, and is instead bullish about Tesla Motors. The Fool points to Tesla's strong stock performance, and predicts future growth will come from more car models in the future - starting with the Model X - as well as the company's proposed Gigafactory for manufacturing batteries. If Tesla's charging technology continues to catch on, that only improves its financial prospects. The article has some harsh words, however, for hydrogen: "Fuel cells are an inferior automotive technology and for fundamental efficiency, cost, and infrastructure reasons always will be mere compliance gimmicks." Yeesh. As part of a program to build charging stations for the Indianapolis EV carsharing service BlueIndy, utility company Indianapolis Power & Light (IPL) wants to raise its electricity rates an average of 44 cents a month per residential customer to help pay for its share of the project. State consumer advocacy agency Indiana Office of Utility Consumer Counselor and consumer watchdog group Citizens Action Coalition oppose the plan, according to Greenfield, Indiana's Daily Reporter. The BlueIndy program, which is a partnership between the city of Indianapolis and battery manufacturer Bollore Group, will provide up to 500 cars for rent at 25 charging sites around the city. Those who oppose the rate hike call IPL a monopoly and say the amount of the increase is not allowed under state law and that the program wouldn't benefit working class and low-income citizens. A hearing regarding IPL's proposal is scheduled for July 23. A Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV will run the 2014 Asia Cross Country Rally, Hybrid Cars reports. The rally covers 1,367 miles of woods, swamps and mountains from Thailand to Cambodia.

Carmakers, NHTSA to unveil auto-emergency braking agreement tomorrow

Happy St. Patrick's Day Eve. Tomorrow, there will be green beer, corned beef and cabbage, and automatic emergency braking for all. Weird combo, we know. But on St. Patty's we can expect an official announcement from a pact of automakers making auto-braking systems standard equipment by 2022. That's per a report from Reuters, which cites three sources familiar with the plans. Originally announced in September 2015 by 10 automakers and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the agreement is expected to be even larger when the details are unveiled tomorrow. According to Reuters, the manufacturers of 99 percent of the US domestic market's vehicles will be represented by the new agreement. It's believed that standard AEB systems could prevent thousands of accidents across the country. Expect more on the official announcement when it's made. Related Video: