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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Next Lotus Elise to draw from its roots

Recently-appointed Lotus CEO Jean-Marc Gales told Autocar that work on the new Lotus Elise, which is coming in 2020, is already underway, and thanks to growing sales, the automaker is set to make a profit for the first time in 20 years. Gales also dropped some details about the new sports cars' design philosophy and underpinnings. According to the report, the new Elise will utilize the same aluminum chassis technology found in the original Elise and won't bear any resemblance to the 2010 Elise concept. Instead, the upcoming vehicle will uphold its roots with a lightweight design that emphasizes driver involvement at an affordable price. The new Elise is rumored to weigh in at roughly 1,984 pounds, almost 384 pounds more than the original Elise. In order to meet US crash ratings, the Elise will most likely be wider, but have the same length as the current model. Power will probably come from a Toyota unit producing between 134 horsepower and 245 horsepower. The Elise is expected to come to the US where it will be offered with a manual and automatic transmission, which will both come from Toyota as well. Gales claims Lotus has more orders now than in any year in the last 10 years, with the US being one of the automaker's most important markets. Related Video:

Toyota spending $168 million to make more Mirai fuel cell vehicles

The last semi-official number we had for pre-orders for the 2016 Toyota Mirai fuel cell vehicle was around 200. But demand is strong enough that Toyota is saying that it will spend 20 billion yen ($168 million US) to expand annual production capacity at the "secretive workshop" where the Mirai will be built from 700 in the first year (2015) to around 2,000 after that. Japanese newspaper Nikkei reported the increase and also breaks down where Toyota expects to sell the small number of Mirai vehicles it will make in the first few years: 400 in Japan by the end of 2015, 200 or 300 In the US in 2015 (and then 3,000 by the end of 2017) and between 50 and 100 in Europe annually starting around 2016. To make all of these hydrogen cars, Toyota will add two lines to the factory where the fuel cell stacks and tanks are built and it will also upgrade the assembly location. In the US, the Mirai will initially only be sold in California next year and will start at $57,500 or lease for $499 a month for 36 months (with $3,649 due at signing). The Japanese automaker is including hydrogen fuel for "up to three years" at that price, mostly because no one knows how to accurately measure and sell H2 for cars quite yet.