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Toyota FT-86 Open Concept leaves us feeling flushed

When last we checked in on our topless would-be hero, the Toyota FT-86 convertible had been reportedly placed on "indefinite hold." That was back in early October, not long after Toyota had trotted out the rear-wheel-drive canvasback to Scion dealers as a possible future product carrot if they decided not to turn in their franchises. And yet, we're here at the Tokyo Motor Show, where Toyota has taken the time to at least repaint the FT-86 Open Concept in "Flash Red," if not build a whole other car (the original Geneva showcar was white). It's enough to make our heads spin like a teenager on the verge of a breakup. Will they? Won't they?
At this point, we still don't know any more than you do - the last word we heard out of Toyota was not encouraging, although the story was that the program could still be fast-tracked if management had a change of heart. As the car has never been seen before in Japan, perhaps Toyota is merely extending its domestic audience a courtesy view before it lines this showcar in mothballs, or maybe they're still trying to make a decision on its fate and gauging public reaction on the homefront.
Interestingly, in a new story published today, Automotive News quotes Subaru brand boss Yasuyuki Yoshinaga downplaying the likelihood of a production model, saying flatly "We make the car, so if we don't make it, it can't happen." The executive went on to note, "Our engineering department told me that losing the entire roof requires a complete redesign of the structure. It would need a big change." Given that such a car would probably trade in rather small volumes, that sounds like a significant hurtle.

Scion was Toyota's lost generation

Toyota's top North American leader was succinct in explaining the reasons for killing Scion. "It's the right decision at the right time," Jim Lentz said. It's hard to disagree. In a strong market that saw 17.5 million sales last year, Scion volume dipped three percent. Its product lineup has withered for years, which is always a telltale sign a brand doesn't have the full support of its owner. Though enthusiasts love the FR-S sports car, it's the fruit of a joint project with Subaru that also produced the BRZ. Scion's coolest car has a twin sold by one of its rivals. After the FR-S launched in 2012, Scion got nothing – squat – in the way of new products until the iA and iM arrived late last year, IHS senior analyst Stephanie Brinley noted. "[Scion] was not successful in building a visual brand identity or product personality," she said. Lentz, Scion's first vice president and now CEO of Toyota's North American division, admitted the market has changed. "Younger customers have a different mindset," he said. In the early oughts, a brand that catered to a youthful demographic made some sense, and this is one front where Toyota can declare victory. Seventy percent of Scion's buyers were new to Toyota, and the average age was 36 years old. The problem is, not enough of them buy Scions anymore. Scion hit a highwater sales mark of 173,034 vehicles in 2006 and hasn't come close to reaching that since. The recession hurt Scion, too. It bottomed out in 2010 with just 45,678 sales, a time when the rest of the industry was beginning to recover. There was a brief uptick (73,507) in 2012, but Scion failed to capitalize on that momentum and sales fell for three more years. Toyota is calling Scion's pending death a "transition" back to the main company. Sure, most of the cars will be rebadged Toyotas, like the FR-S, iA, and iM. The C-HR, an attractive future crossover that would have given Scion a boost, will go into production as a Toyota. But make no mistake: This is a failure. Toyota is closing a brand in the same way General Motors scrapped Oldsmobile, Ford shuttered Mercury, and Chrysler dropped Plymouth. Those brands languished for years. Toyota moved quicker to put the fork in Scion, which prevented it from becoming a long-term drain on the parent company. Lentz was dead on. It's the right time. News & Analysis News: Sergio Marchionne is against a Ferrari SUV Analysis: His exact words were, "you have to shoot me first," Bloomberg reported.

Scion exec admits brand has too many dealerships, may contract network

Despite being conceived by corporate giant Toyota, Scion painstakingly built its reputation on being something of an offbeat, youth-minded brand, working hard to establish individualist, almost hipster-like credentials. So it comes as something of a surprise to hear WardsAuto report that Scion has a whopping 1,000 dealers across America - just 200 fewer than Toyota itself. This, despite a much smaller product portfolio and a sliver of the sales volume.
All those factors may explain why Bill Fay, US group vice president for Toyota, is admitting to the industry publication that its dealer network "might actually go down a little bit." As it stands, the volume end of the equation is probably an even bigger incentive - Scion's sales are way down from the salad days of the mid-2000s, when the brand had fewer models but sold more of them. With the (then) white-hot xB and tC models, Scion shifted 173,034 units in 2006, while Ward's notes the marque's 2013 sales are only at 41,261 units through July. In the story, AutoPacific analyst Dave Sullivan observes that other low-volume brands have far fewer dealer points, noting that Mini has just 115 dealer points and Infiniti has 200. By Sullivan's estimate, he would expect to see 350-500 Scion stores based on its sales figures.
Dealer question aside, the bigger issue is where the brand goes from here, and Fay admits Toyota is studying a number of different strategies, including possibly going "small-premium." Nothing is finalized, though according to Ward's, Fay discounts the idea that the FR-S - the brand's sales bright spot - will drive the brand to consider a more driver-oriented lineup.