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US database may have overstated deaths in GM ignition switch recall

The FARS analysis didn't take into account fatal accidents where the airbags weren't supposed to deploy. Earlier today, we reported that the actual death toll attributable to GM's ignition switch problem had crested the 300 mark according to new research, well up from the original reports of 12 to 13 deaths. Now, word is breaking that the US government database that informed the study that the report was based on may have significantly overstated the correlation between the study and the GM recall. The initial study was conducted by Friedman Research on behalf of the Center for Auto Safety, and used something called the US Fatality Analysis Reporting System. To recap, the study claimed that over a 10-year period, 303 people were killed in Chevrolet Cobalt and Saturn Ion coupes and sedans when their airbags failed to deploy. These undeployed airbags were then linked to GM's ignition switch recall, which as we've explained before, can turn the ignition out of the "run" position and into the "off" or "accessory" position, disabling the airbags in the process. Now, according to a report from The Detroit News, which cites research from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety and the National Study Center for Trauma and EMS at the University of Maryland, the FARS analysis didn't take into account fatal accidents in conditions where the airbags weren't supposed to deploy (which isn't to say crashes and deaths weren't caused by loss of control from the ignition switching off in the GM vehicles). According to the report, this was a significant number of the cases. There is another potential problem, too. According to that same report, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration uses both FARS and another database on fatalities, called the National Automotive Sampling System/Crashworthiness Data System (NASS/CDS). Where FARS uses what the DetNews calls "not always reliable" police data to record vehicular deaths within 30 days of a crash, NASS/CDS relies on what's known as a probability sample. It collects data on 5,000 crashes each year – including some found in the FARS database – to calculate a probability figure. According to a 2009 IIHS study, "Among crashes common to both databases, NASS/CDS reported deployments for 45 percent of front occupant deaths for which FARS had coded nondeployments." In plain English, FARS doesn't provide a reliable count airbag deployments.

Are orphan cars better deals?

Most folks don't know a Saturn Aura from an Oldsmobile Aurora. Those of you who are immersed in the labyrinth of automobilia know that both cars were testaments to the mediocrity that was pre-bankruptcy General Motors, and that both brands are now long gone. But everybody else? Not so much. By the same token, there are some excellent cars and trucks that don't raise an eyebrow simply because they were sold under brands that are no longer being marketed. Orphan brands no longer get any marketing love, and because of that they can be alarmingly cheap. Case in point, take a look at how a 2010 Saturn Outlook compares with its siblings, the GMC Acadia and Buick Enclave. According to the Manheim Market Report, the Saturn will sell at a wholesale auto auction for around $3,500 less than the comparably equipped Buick or GMC. Part of the reason for this price gap is that most large independent dealerships, such as Carmax, make it a point to avoid buying cars with orphaned badges. Right now if you go to Carmax's site, you'll find that there are more models from Toyota's Scion sub-brand than Mercury, Saab, Pontiac, Hummer, and Saturn combined. This despite the fact that these brands collectively sold in the millions over the last ten years while Scion has rarely been able to realize a six-figure annual sales figure for most of its history. That is the brutal truth of today's car market. When the chips are down, used-car shoppers are nearly as conservative as their new-car-buying counterparts. Unfamiliarity breeds contempt. Contempt leads to fear. Fear leads to anger, and pretty soon you wind up with an older, beat-up Mazda MX-5 in your driveway instead of looking up a newer Pontiac Solstice or Saturn Sky. There are tons of other reasons why orphan cars have trouble selling in today's market. Worries about the cost of repair and the availability of parts hang over the industry's lost toys like a cloud of dust over Pigpen. Yet any common diagnostic repair database, such as Alldata, will have a complete framework for your car's repair and maintenance, and everyone from junkyards to auto parts stores to eBay and Amazon stock tens of thousands of parts. This makes some orphan cars mindblowingly awesome deals if you're willing to shop in the bargain bins of the used-car market. Consider a Suzuki Kizashi with a manual transmission. No, really.

303 Deaths Tied To Airbag Non-Deployment In 2 General Motors' Cars

At least 303 motorists died in car accidents after their airbags didn't deploy in now-recalled General Motors vehicles, according to a study released late last night. The Center for Auto Safety, a non-profit automotive watchdog, reviewed data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System, and counted deaths involving the Chevrolet Cobalt and Saturn Ion, two vehicles at the heart of several ongoing investigations, to reach its conclusion. If the airbag non-deployments were the result of a faulty ignition switch that inadvertently turns them off, the death toll would be the largest in automotive history attributed to a single defect, surpassing the 250 deaths investigators linked to defective Firestone Tires more than a decade ago. The rising death toll would further amplify questions about why GM and federal safety regulators at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration didn't act sooner to correct the problem. Safety advocates have said both GM and NHTSA failed to act in a timely fashion to alert motorists of the dangers posed by the dangerous defect, of which documents GM had knowledge of as early as 2001 and NHTSA knew about in 2007. "The question today for NHTSA is how so many ... death reports without an airbag deployment and so many FARS deaths without an airbag deployment failed to trigger an investigation," wrote Clarence Ditlow, the executive director of the Center for Auto Safety. "... For the people who died or were seriously injured in crashes, the answer comes too late." GM has acknowledged 13 deaths related to the problem, and says the number cited by the Center for Auto Safety study is "speculation." The review of FARS data, conducted by Friedman Research at the request of the Center for Auto Safety, looked at fatal cases in which airbags did not deploy but did not analyze the causes of the crashes. FARS information is raw data submitted to a national database by state and local authorities when fatal accidents occur. Last month, GM recalled 1.37 million cars in the U.S. because a faulty ignition switch had been inadvertently moving from the "run" position to the "accessory" position, turning off engines and systems that provide power to airbags. "Shame is not a strong enough word," said Lou Lombardo, the founder of Care for Crash Victims, another safety-minded nonprofit that advocates for accident victims. The results of the CAS study were first reported by the New York Times.