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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

Tesla Model 3: Finding perspective

The reveal of the Tesla Model 3 this week was one of the biggest automotive events of the year. The car attracted 180,000 pre-orders in just 24 hours, gave the company's stock a jolt, and set Tesla on a more ambitious growth path for the rest of the decade. It's a staggering feat considering the Model 3 is one car, from one company that's just 13 years old. It begs the question: Is all of this attention warranted? Barclays analyst Brian Johnson urged investors to "take a deep breath," and be mindful that the Model 3 won't likely arrive in "significant volume" until possibly 2019. Though Tesla promises the car will launch in 2017, Johnson points to the slow rollouts of the Model S sedan and Model X crossover as cautionary notes. The potential extended wait didn't temper the enthusiasm of Tesla's faithful, and many put down deposits before they had even seen the car. Johnson compared the hype to a "Black Friday atmosphere," saying the social media buzz went from "insane mode to ludicrous mode," in a riff on Tesla's driving features. Still, the Barclays analyst was admittedly "curmudgeonly" when it came to Tesla's stock price. In comparison, Morgan Stanley called Tesla's shares undervalued, and expects the Model 3 to be the start of cataclysmic changes in the industry. "We have said for some time that, despite its many worthy accomplishments, Tesla had not yet truly disrupted the auto industry," according to a report led by Adam Jonas. "We are now getting a feeling that this may be starting to change." The Model 3 offers a range of 215 miles on a single charge, can sprint to 60 miles per hour in less than six seconds, and has room for five. It will also be capable of charging on Tesla's supercharging network and features the company's autonomous technology. With a starting price of $35,000 before incentives, it's arguably the most futuristic car that's attainable for a wide swatch of American buyers, though the Chevy Bolt EV is comparable (200-plus-mile range, $37,500 MSRP before incentives) in many ways. The Model 3's attainability is what partially drove the hype. It was like Elon was whispering: Y ou can own the future. The question is now: Can Tesla deliver? If it does, this early fanfare will be richly deserved. News & Analysis News: Top Gear appears to be in turmoil as Chris Evans works four hours a day. Analysis: Is this a soap opera or a car show?

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