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Tesla Model 3: Finding perspective

The reveal of the Tesla Model 3 this week was one of the biggest automotive events of the year. The car attracted 180,000 pre-orders in just 24 hours, gave the company's stock a jolt, and set Tesla on a more ambitious growth path for the rest of the decade. It's a staggering feat considering the Model 3 is one car, from one company that's just 13 years old. It begs the question: Is all of this attention warranted? Barclays analyst Brian Johnson urged investors to "take a deep breath," and be mindful that the Model 3 won't likely arrive in "significant volume" until possibly 2019. Though Tesla promises the car will launch in 2017, Johnson points to the slow rollouts of the Model S sedan and Model X crossover as cautionary notes. The potential extended wait didn't temper the enthusiasm of Tesla's faithful, and many put down deposits before they had even seen the car. Johnson compared the hype to a "Black Friday atmosphere," saying the social media buzz went from "insane mode to ludicrous mode," in a riff on Tesla's driving features. Still, the Barclays analyst was admittedly "curmudgeonly" when it came to Tesla's stock price. In comparison, Morgan Stanley called Tesla's shares undervalued, and expects the Model 3 to be the start of cataclysmic changes in the industry. "We have said for some time that, despite its many worthy accomplishments, Tesla had not yet truly disrupted the auto industry," according to a report led by Adam Jonas. "We are now getting a feeling that this may be starting to change." The Model 3 offers a range of 215 miles on a single charge, can sprint to 60 miles per hour in less than six seconds, and has room for five. It will also be capable of charging on Tesla's supercharging network and features the company's autonomous technology. With a starting price of $35,000 before incentives, it's arguably the most futuristic car that's attainable for a wide swatch of American buyers, though the Chevy Bolt EV is comparable (200-plus-mile range, $37,500 MSRP before incentives) in many ways. The Model 3's attainability is what partially drove the hype. It was like Elon was whispering: Y ou can own the future. The question is now: Can Tesla deliver? If it does, this early fanfare will be richly deserved. News & Analysis News: Top Gear appears to be in turmoil as Chris Evans works four hours a day. Analysis: Is this a soap opera or a car show?

Stellantis not looking for further mergers, including with Renault

MILAN — Stellantis Chairman John Elkann on Monday denied the carmaker was hatching merger plans, responding to press speculation about a possible French-led tie-up with rival Renault. Elkann said that the Peugeot owner, the world's third largest carmaker by sales, was focused on the execution of its long-term business plan. "There is no plan under consideration regarding merger operations with other manufacturers," said Elkann, who also heads Exor, the Agnelli family holding company that is the largest single shareholder in Stellantis. After abandoning the Russian market, at the time its second largest after France, and reducing the scope of its global cooperation with Nissan, Renault has been seen as a potential M&A target. Speculation intensified after an electric vehicle market slowdown forced it last week to cancel IPO plans for its EV and software unit Ampere. Its market cap remains stubbornly low at little over 10 billion euros ($10.8 billion) despite a financial recovery over the past few years. Stellantis, the product of a 2021 merger between France's PSA and Fiat Chrysler and one of the most profitable groups in the industry, has a market cap of more than 85 billion euros when unlisted shares are factored in. It has a 14 brand portfolio also including Citroen, Jeep, Opel and Alfa Romeo. NEWSPAPER REPORT Italian daily Il Messaggero had said on Sunday that the French government, which is Renault's largest shareholder and also has a stake in Stellantis, was studying plans for a merger between the two groups. A spokeswoman for Renault said on Monday the group did not comment on rumors. France's Finance Ministry had declined to comment on Sunday. Stellantis has crossed swords with the Italian government, which has accused it of acting against the national interest on occasions. Industry Minister Adolfo Urso last week raised the prospect of the Italian government taking a stake in Stellantis to help to balance the French influence. Renault shares pared gains after Elkann's comments to stand 1.2% higher by 1220 GMT, having initially risen more than 4%. Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares, a Portuguese-national, last week said in an interview with Bloomberg that the group was "ready for any kind of consolidation" and that its job was to make sure that it would be "one of the winners". Analysts, however, question the rationale of a Stellantis-Renault merger, which would also expand the group's excess capacity in Europe.

Pickup prices rising at 2x industry average

We've said it before, but bears repeating: Pickup trucks are the financial engines of America's automakers. Good thing, then, that the segment is in rude health - in fact, Automotive News is suggesting that pickup truck sales are arguably healthier than they were pre-recession, even though the segment's volume is still significantly down from where it was before the bottom fell out of the US economy. That's because per-unit profits on full-size trucks are skyrocketing, outpacing the industry's average price increases by more than double since 2005. According to data from Edmunds, the average transaction price of a full-size pickup is now $39,915 - a heady increase over the $31,059 average price in 2005 - a gain of over 8 percent after inflation is factored in.
Just how important are trucks to automakers' bottom lines? Automotive News quotes a Morgan Stanley analyst as saying the Ford F-Series is responsible for 90 percent of the company's 2012 profits, and General Motors isn't far behind, with the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra twins chipping in about two-thirds of the automaker's earnings.
Automotive News points out that Detroit's automakers now have the money to invest in modernizing their full-size truck offerings, in part because they don't have the same overhead and legacy costs that pushed General Motors and Chrysler into bankruptcy. Certainly, the pickup segment has seen a lot of innovations as of late, including turbocharged V6s, coil-spring rear suspensions and active aero. Those improvements in important areas like fuel economy and ride comfort have given existing pickup buyers new reasons to upgrade. In addition, automakers are piling on the tech and luxury goodies, creating more and more high-content, high-profit models like the Ford F-150 King Ranch, Ram 1500 Laramie Longhorn and Chevrolet Silverado High Country (shown).