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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

Chrysler recalling 280k Dodge Ram 1500 pickups over axle seizures

Following a June investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles will be recalling 280,000 Dodge Ram pickups from model year 2005. The issue, NHTSA told The Detroit News, centered on a loose pinion nut, which could cause the rear axle to seize and, potentially, the driveshaft to detach. The affected vehicles were built between January of 2004 and August of 2005, while of the 280,000 trucks, only 257,000 were sold in the US market. According to The News, the recall will begin on February 13, and will see owners report to dealerships to have "a retention feature" added to the pinion nut.

Stellantis not looking for further mergers, including with Renault

MILAN — Stellantis Chairman John Elkann on Monday denied the carmaker was hatching merger plans, responding to press speculation about a possible French-led tie-up with rival Renault. Elkann said that the Peugeot owner, the world's third largest carmaker by sales, was focused on the execution of its long-term business plan. "There is no plan under consideration regarding merger operations with other manufacturers," said Elkann, who also heads Exor, the Agnelli family holding company that is the largest single shareholder in Stellantis. After abandoning the Russian market, at the time its second largest after France, and reducing the scope of its global cooperation with Nissan, Renault has been seen as a potential M&A target. Speculation intensified after an electric vehicle market slowdown forced it last week to cancel IPO plans for its EV and software unit Ampere. Its market cap remains stubbornly low at little over 10 billion euros ($10.8 billion) despite a financial recovery over the past few years. Stellantis, the product of a 2021 merger between France's PSA and Fiat Chrysler and one of the most profitable groups in the industry, has a market cap of more than 85 billion euros when unlisted shares are factored in. It has a 14 brand portfolio also including Citroen, Jeep, Opel and Alfa Romeo. NEWSPAPER REPORT Italian daily Il Messaggero had said on Sunday that the French government, which is Renault's largest shareholder and also has a stake in Stellantis, was studying plans for a merger between the two groups. A spokeswoman for Renault said on Monday the group did not comment on rumors. France's Finance Ministry had declined to comment on Sunday. Stellantis has crossed swords with the Italian government, which has accused it of acting against the national interest on occasions. Industry Minister Adolfo Urso last week raised the prospect of the Italian government taking a stake in Stellantis to help to balance the French influence. Renault shares pared gains after Elkann's comments to stand 1.2% higher by 1220 GMT, having initially risen more than 4%. Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares, a Portuguese-national, last week said in an interview with Bloomberg that the group was "ready for any kind of consolidation" and that its job was to make sure that it would be "one of the winners". Analysts, however, question the rationale of a Stellantis-Renault merger, which would also expand the group's excess capacity in Europe.