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Renault wants to merge with Nissan, then go after Fiat Chrysler

The late Sergio Marchionne used to say consolidation would be the only way to compete against the biggest global carmakers. The company looks certain to fulfill that goal, but perhaps not in the way he intended. The Financial Times reports that Renault wants to begin merger talks with Nissan in the next 12 months. Assuming a merger gets completed, the plan is for the combined company to then pursue another merger, with Fiat Chrysler a prime target. Renault, Nissan, and Mitsubishi have been busy since cutting ties with ex-alliance boss Carlos Ghosn. They formed a new alliance board with Renault chairman Jean-Dominique Senard at the helm, Renault has shrunk the size of its board while Nissan added more outside directors, and the two agreed to a new governance structure to ease operational decision making. All three automakers have walked away from Ghosn-era goals to sell 14 million cars and find 10 billion euros in savings by 2022. New strategic plans for all three car companies are in the works. With stability in sight, it's said Senard wants to succeed where Ghosn failed — a full-fledged merger between Renault and Nissan with talks to begin "as soon as possible." Ghosn's pursuit of a merger last year in attempt to make the 20-year-old alliance "irreversible" is part of what led to his downfall, with Nissan executives including CEO Hiroto Saikawa against the push. The new effort is presented as larger scale being the only way for the alliance to take on companies like Volkswagen and Toyota. But the Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi trio sold 10.76 million cars around the world last year, second to Volkswagen with 10.83 million sales, ahead of Toyota with 10.39 million. If Nissan hadn't suffered a 2.8 percent dip in sales, the alliance would have taken the top spot. If a little scale is good that means more is better, right? Pulling Fiat Chrysler into the alliance would add around 5 million annual sales, and would be another move in Ghosn's footsteps. The former honcho is said to have "held talks with FCA" about some kind of union within the past three years. The French government, which has a 15 percent stake in Renault and double voting rights, shut down the initiative. It's not clear if FCA will be an independent company by the time a potential Nissan-Renault merger closed, though.

Nissan's Carlos Ghosn offers to wear electronic ankle tag if released

TOKYO — Ousted Nissan Chairman Carlos Ghosn has offered to wear an electronic ankle tag and hire guards to monitor him in an unusual bid to secure his release on bail after two months of harsh detention in Japan for alleged financial crimes. Ghosn is also willing to remain in Tokyo, where he has leased an apartment, and post stock he owns in Nissan as collateral, his spokeswoman said. A new bail hearing is set for Monday after an earlier request was denied due partly to concerns the French executive was a flight risk. His release would allow Ghosn to meet more frequently with his lawyers and defend himself before the board of Renault, where he remains chairman and CEO, amid calls for his removal and potential moves to restructure the Nissan tie-up. Ghosn denies any wrongdoing as he awaits trial on charges of financial misconduct. "I will attend my trial not only because I am legally obligated to do so, but because I am eager to finally have the opportunity to defend myself," Ghosn said in a statement on Sunday. "I am not guilty of the charges against me, and I look forward to defending my reputation in the courtroom." Meanwhile, Ghosn's wife, Carole Ghosn, has written to French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss her husband's situation, her public relations representative said. The representative, Devon Spurgeon, confirmed a report in French paper Journal du Dimanche that a letter had been sent to Macron this month, but declined to provide details. France wants a full merger As Ghosn's arrest on Nov. 19 continued to cloud the outlook for Nissan's three-way alliance with France's Renault and Mitsubishi Motors, Nissan said it was not the time to discuss revising the partners' capital ties. Ghosn, who spearheaded Nissan's turnaround two decades ago, had pushed for a deeper tie-up between Nissan and Renault, including possibly a full merger by 2020, despite strong reservations at the Japanese firm. "We are not at the stage for such discussions," Nissan CEO Hiroto Saikawa told reporters on Monday. Saikawa said he had not heard directly about a reported proposal by the French government to integrate the Japanese carmaker's management with Renault. The Nikkei newspaper reported on Sunday that a French government delegation had informed Tokyo that it would seek an integration of Renault and Nissan, most likely under the umbrella of a single holding company. "Since I have not heard this directly, I cannot comment," Saikawa told reporters.

PSA shares rise following FCA's breakup with Renault

Shares in Groupe PSA, parent company of automakers Peugeot, Citroen and the DS brand, rose on Thursday as analysts considered the possibility that Fiat Chrysler could turn back to PSA after withdrawing its $35 billion merger offer for Renault. "Both parties have acknowledged the need for scale or [mergers and acquisitions] and may pursue other opportunities. If Nissan was an obstacle (to an FCA-Renault deal) PSA-FCA discussions could resume," wrote brokerage Jefferies. Back in March at the Geneva Motor Show, rumors started swirling that PSA was interested in a potential merger with FCA. Mike Manley, who took over at the helm of Fiat Chrysler following the death of Sergio Marchionne, had indicated a willingness to look into potential partnership options. Of course, that was all before FCA proposed a merger with Renault — with that deal now off the table, attention naturally turns back to PSA, which is also based in France. "We expect both shares to react negatively but see FCA having wider strategic options and Renault shares more downside risk near-term," said Jefferies. According to Reuters, PSA shares were up 1.5% at the time this was published, making it the top-performing stock on France's benchmark CAC-40 Index. Renault saw its shares slump 7%. Shares for FCA fell 3% in early trading on the Milan Stock Exchange. Considering that FCA said in its statement confirming the withdraw of its merger offer with Renault that "political conditions in France do not currently exist for such a combination to proceed successfully," we have to wonder how keen the company is to begin negotiations with another French automaker like PSA. Those thoughts were similarly voiced by Bernstein Research analyst Max Warburton, who said (via Forbes), "Expect PSA to rise on unrealistic hopes it may be FCA's next date." Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Mitsubishi Nissan Citroen Peugeot Renault FCA renault-nissan