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'Car Wars' says Ford, Honda to pick up share, Fiat-Chrysler ambitions downplayed

Don't look for a tremendous shifts in automotive market share over the next three years because it might not be coming. That's at least according to the annual Car Wars report by John Murphy, from Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research.
In the report's analysis of automakers' market share from 2013 to 2017, it predicts only small changes among the major companies. Ford and Honda see the biggest positive effect with an estimated 0.5 percent increase in their shares over the next three years; to 16.2 percent and 10.3 percent respectively. On the flip side, European automakers and Nissan are expected to lose 0.2 percent each to fall to 8.3 percent and 7.8 percent each respectively. The rest of the industry is predicted to hold steady as it is now.
The biggest loser in that prediction might be Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles. The report certainly throws a wet blanket on its plan for significant gains in market share. Murphy told The Detroit News that the company's goal was "almost unattainable."

Carlos Ghosn projects Renault-Nissan for #3 position by 2018

As the chief executive of both Renault and Nissan, Carlos Ghosn is one of the most powerful executives in the automotive industry. But at 60, he'll have to retire sooner than later: he's got three and a half years left on his contract at Renault, which mandates retirement by 65. But before his time is up, he intends to leave the Renault-Nissan Alliance among the top three automakers in the world. Currently the combined sales of Nissan, Renault and its various brands (including Dacia, Datsun and Infiniti) make the alliance the fourth largest carmaker globally, trailing behind Toyota, Volkswagen and General Motors, but ahead of Hyundai, Ford, Fiat Chrysler and Honda. But Ghosn sees the alliance's sales (and global market share) increasing in the next three years. Speaking with Automotive News Europe, Ghosn projected confidently that the alliance will hit the number three spot by 2018 – just three years from now. To get there, Ghosn knows that Nissan and Infiniti will need to increase their combined market share to 10 percent in the United States, growing around 2 to 3 percent each year between now and 2018. The challenge is that much more evident in North America where only half of the alliance participates. But it's not all about America. Ghosn also the Chinese market as equally vital to the alliance's success and that of its constituent automakers, projecting continued growth in China for the foreseeable future. He's also banked heavily on the Russian market, which may have dipped now, but in Ghosn's view is bound to recover. News Source: Automotive News - sub. req.Image Credit: Renault-Nissan Alliance Nissan Renault renault-nissan alliance

Strains between France and Italy risk Renault-FCA merger

PARIS/ROME — Fiat Chrysler's proposed $35 billion merger with Renault has cheered investors, won conditional support from Paris and Rome and even earned cautious backing from trade unions. Beneath this veneer, however, the bold attempt to create the world's third-largest carmaker risks becoming rapidly embroiled in the fraught relationship between France's europhile President Emmanuel Macron and Italy's euroskeptic leaders. For while Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini hailed the proposal as a "brilliant operation," Italy's creaking, state-subsidized Fiat factories are likely to bear the brunt of any production-related cost savings. FCA and Renault said this week that more than 5 billion euros ($5.6 billion) of annual savings would come mainly from combining platforms, consolidating powertrain and electrification investments and the benefits of increased scale. Salvini and France's Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, who called the deal a "good opportunity" to build a European industrial champion able to compete with China and the United States, have both said they want guarantees on local jobs. "It's not every day that I agree with Salvini," said Le Maire, whose government appears to hold the trump cards. When it comes to where any job cuts fall, France will be helped by its existing 15 percent holding in Renault, whose superior efficiency at its five French plants makes it better placed to handle a supply glut, the demise of the petrol engine and the investments needed for electric and autonomous vehicles. "It will take many, many years to find real savings, and ugly political and operational realities can often swamp the potential of such new entities," Bernstein analyst Max Warburton said of the FCA-Renault plan to rival Japan's Toyota and Germany's Volkswagen. Advantage France? As well as Italy's government having to cope with the aftermath of European elections, which coincided with news of the FCA-Renault plans, political leaders in Rome were only informed shortly before the deal was made public, an FCA source said. This contrasted with the way the French government was treated, with Fiat Chrysler Chairman John Elkann, a fluent French speaker, letting it know of his merger proposal to Renault weeks ago, a French government official said.