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Carlos Ghosn's arrest casts doubt on future of Renault-Nissan alliance

For years, France's Renault and Japan's Nissan struggled to make money in the global auto business. Then came Carlos Ghosn, a Renault executive who helped to orchestrate an unprecedented transcontinental alliance, combining parts of both companies to share engineering and technology costs. Now Ghosn's arrest in Japan for alleged financial improprieties at Nissan could put the nearly 20-year-old alliance in jeopardy. Ghosn, 64, born in Brazil, schooled in France and of Lebanese heritage, is set to be ousted this week from his spot as Nissan chairman. He could also lose his roles as CEO and chairman of Renault, threatening the alliance formed in 1999 that's now selling more than 10 million automobiles a year. He's been "the glue that holds Renault and Nissan together," Bernstein analyst Max Warburton wrote in a note to investors. "It is hard not to conclude that there may be a gulf opening up between Renault and Nissan." In fact, Nissan's investigation into alleged misconduct by Ghosn is expanding to include Renault-Nissan finances, sources told Reuters — in a further sign that Nissan may seek to loosen its French parent's hold on their global carmaking alliance. Nissan told Renault's board on Monday it had evidence of potential wrongdoing at Renault-Nissan BV, the Dutch venture overseeing alliance operations under Renault's ultimate control, three people with knowledge of the matter said. Renault's board planned to meet Tuesday to discuss Ghosn's fate. "Carlos Ghosn is no longer in a position where he is capable of leading Renault," French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told France Info radio, calling on Renault's board to meet "in the coming hours" to set up an interim management structure. The French government owns 15 percent in Renault and has a say in its operations. Nissan's board is to meet Thursday to consider Ghosn's fate. Nissan has said it will dismiss Ghosn after he was arrested for allegedly abusing company funds and misreporting his income. That opens up a leadership void at the entire alliance, for which Ghosn officially still serves as CEO and chairman. Ghosn added Mitsubishi to the alliance two years ago after the tiny automaker was caught in a gas-mileage cheating scandal. Renault owns 43.4 percent of Nissan, which owns 15 percent of Renault, with no voting rights in a partnership that began in 1999. Since 2016, Nissan has held a 34 percent controlling stake in Mitsubishi Motor Corp.

Mitsubishi slashes annual profit forecast on slowing car sales

TOKYO — Mitsubishi Motors on Wednesday cut its full-year profit outlook by 67% as it expects sluggish demand in North America and China will continue, while a strong yen and research and development costs will also hurt the automaker's bottom line. Japan's sixth-largest automaker now expects operating profit to come in at 30.0 billion yen in the year to March, down from a previous forecast for 90.0 billion yen. The new outlook would be Mitsubishi's lowest profit since the year ended March 2017. The downgrade comes after Mitsubishi, in which Nissan holds a controlling stake, reported a 78% plunge in operating profit during the July-September quarter to 6.3 billion yen, lower than a mean forecast for 16.26 billion yen from analysts polled by Refinitiv. It joins a growing number of Japanese automakers which are bracing for lower profitability. Earlier on Wednesday, Subaru lowered its annual profit forecast due to a stronger yen and a cut in domestic output due to a major typhoon last month. Mazda and Suzuki have also cut their respective outlooks within the past month due to slowing demand for their cars. Earnings/Financials Mitsubishi

PSA shares rise following FCA's breakup with Renault

Shares in Groupe PSA, parent company of automakers Peugeot, Citroen and the DS brand, rose on Thursday as analysts considered the possibility that Fiat Chrysler could turn back to PSA after withdrawing its $35 billion merger offer for Renault. "Both parties have acknowledged the need for scale or [mergers and acquisitions] and may pursue other opportunities. If Nissan was an obstacle (to an FCA-Renault deal) PSA-FCA discussions could resume," wrote brokerage Jefferies. Back in March at the Geneva Motor Show, rumors started swirling that PSA was interested in a potential merger with FCA. Mike Manley, who took over at the helm of Fiat Chrysler following the death of Sergio Marchionne, had indicated a willingness to look into potential partnership options. Of course, that was all before FCA proposed a merger with Renault — with that deal now off the table, attention naturally turns back to PSA, which is also based in France. "We expect both shares to react negatively but see FCA having wider strategic options and Renault shares more downside risk near-term," said Jefferies. According to Reuters, PSA shares were up 1.5% at the time this was published, making it the top-performing stock on France's benchmark CAC-40 Index. Renault saw its shares slump 7%. Shares for FCA fell 3% in early trading on the Milan Stock Exchange. Considering that FCA said in its statement confirming the withdraw of its merger offer with Renault that "political conditions in France do not currently exist for such a combination to proceed successfully," we have to wonder how keen the company is to begin negotiations with another French automaker like PSA. Those thoughts were similarly voiced by Bernstein Research analyst Max Warburton, who said (via Forbes), "Expect PSA to rise on unrealistic hopes it may be FCA's next date." Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Mitsubishi Nissan Citroen Peugeot Renault FCA renault-nissan