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The UK votes for Brexit and it will impact automakers

It's the first morning after the United Kingdom voted for what's become known as Brexit – that is, to leave the European Union and its tariff-free internal market. Now begins a two-year process in which the UK will have to negotiate with the rest of the EU trading bloc, which is its largest export market, about many things. One of them may be tariffs, and that could severely impact any automaker that builds cars in the UK. This doesn't just mean companies that you think of as British, like Mini and Jaguar. Both of those automakers are owned by foreign companies, incidentally. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors of India, and Bentley by the VW Group. Many other automakers produce cars in the UK for sale within that country and also export to the EU. Tariffs could damage the profits of each of these companies, and perhaps cause them to shift manufacturing out of the UK, significantly damaging the country's resurgent manufacturing industry. Autonews Europe dug up some interesting numbers on that last point. Nissan, the country's second-largest auto producer, builds 475k or so cars in the UK but the vast majority are sent abroad. Toyota built 190k cars last year in Britain, of which 75 percent went to the EU and just 10 percent were sold in the country. Investors are skittish at the news. The value of the pound sterling has plummeted by 8 percent as of this writing, at one point yesterday reaching levels not seen since 1985. Shares at Tata Motors, which counts Jaguar and Land Rover as bright jewels in its portfolio, were off by nearly 12 percent according to Autonews Europe. So what happens next? No one's terribly sure, although the feeling seems to be that the jilted EU will impost tariffs of up to 10 percent on UK exports. It's likely that the UK will reciprocate, and thus it'll be more expensive to buy a European-made car in the UK. Both situations will likely negatively affect the country, as both production of new cars and sales to UK consumers will both fall. Evercore Automotive Research figures the combined damage will be roughly $9b in lost profits to automakers, and an as-of-yet unquantified impact on auto production jobs. Perhaps the EU's leaders in Brussels will be in a better mood in two years, and the process won't devolve into a trade war. In the immediate wake of the Brexit vote, though, the mood is grim, the EU leadership is angry, and investors are spooked.

Next-generation Mini Clubman could morph into a crossover

Mini knows selling station wagons in a market dominated by crossovers and SUVs is easier said than done. Since it can't beat them, it's considering joining them by making the next-generation Clubman more crossover-like than the current model, which proudly embodies its station wagon heritage. Oliver Heilmer, the BMW-owned firm's chief designer, broke the news to British magazine Autocar. The publication pointed out the current-generation Clubman (pictured) is about as long and as wide as the Countryman, and the two models occupy the same price bracket, but it's outsold by its taller sibling. Making it an SUV would certainly give sales a significant boost, but where would this strategy leave the Countryman? Launching a smaller soft-roader is off the table, so one nameplate would grow in size. The Clubman might take the Countryman's spot in the range, allowing it to move up. Nothing is set in stone yet, though putting the Clubman on stilts would better align it with the tastes of motorists in America, one of the brand's key markets. While Mini's sole wagon looks ready for a growth spurt, Heilmer stressed the retro-styled Hardtop — one of the brand's pillars — will remain true to its tiny roots when it enters its fourth generation in the coming years. Keeping the hatchback relatively small while carving out an acceptable amount of interior space and making it compliant with safety regulations around the globe is a huge challenge for Mini's vehicle development team. And, contrary to some industry rumors, going electric doesn't instantly solve the problem. "It's not necessarily the internal combustion engine that needs the space. Even with an EV, which has a smaller motor, you still need a crash box. Crash performance is the bigger issue," the designer explained. He's hopeful his team will solve this problem in 2020, but he warned keeping costs in check is another priority. Clearly, designing a city-friendly car is more difficult than it used to be. New technology might come to the rescue. Energy-absorbing foam could notably take the brunt of an impact, and allow designers to reduce the Hardtop's overhang. Other models would likely receive it, too, but Heilmer's team is primarily concerned about keeping the Hardtop's footprint in check. The rest of the range can — and, probably, will — continue to grow in the coming years. All told, the Hardtop will remain the foundation the rest of Mini's range is built on.

Even Mini's manual transmission take rate is only 11%

Of all the automakers we've talked with so far, Mini seems to sell the largest percentage of its cars with a manual transmission. A representative from the company shared numbers with us that show 11% of its 2019 sales have featured a stick. That beats Subaru's 7%, Volkswagen's 5% and Honda's 2.6%. It likely helps that Mini is a more niche brand, and it offers a manual on nearly every version of its cars. Still, it's sad that 89% of Mini owners decided to get an automatic anyway. The manual take rate between different models varies quite a bit. The high-performance John Cooper Works models are most frequently sold with a manual transmission. The two-door hardtop and convertible versions have the highest percentages for the JCW at 41% and 32%. The JCW Clubman and Countryman follow at 22% and 19%. We're not surprised that the fast versions of Minis are sold with a manual more often than others, but we're surprised that even with two in 10 JCW Clubman and Countryman models selling with one, Mini would drop the option from the new 301-horsepower versions. Unsurprisingly, other trim levels aren't purchased with a stick as often. The least popular is the front-drive Cooper S Countryman at 0%, followed by the regular Cooper Countryman at 1%. Then there's the Cooper Clubman at 3%. Weirdly, the all-wheel-drive Countryman and Clubman models always have a higher percentage of manuals than the front-drive models, with differences ranging from 2% to 10%. The two-door Minis are typically the most likely to sell with a manual even for core models. In the convertible, the 6% of regular Coopers are manual while 30% of the Cooper S are. That nearly matches the JCW convertible. For the hardtop, the regular Cooper's manual take rate is 11% and the Cooper S model's is 17%. These numbers will probably drop in the short term, though. Mini announced that it's temporarily stopping imports of manual Minis due to some emissions calibration issues. After a few months, though, we expect the manual sales to bounce back.