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Automakers face reality of EVs' cost — to jobs, and their bottom line

Related: We obsessively covered the Frankfurt Motor Show — here's our complete coverage FRANKFURT, Germany — European car bosses gathering for the Frankfurt auto show are beginning to address the realities of mass vehicle electrification, and its consequences for jobs and profit, their minds focused by government pledges to outlaw the combustion engine. As the latest such announcement by China added momentum to a push for zero-emissions motoring, Daimler, Volkswagen and PSA Group gave details about their electric programs that could give policymakers some pause. Planned electric Mercedes models will initially be just half as profitable as conventional alternatives, Daimler warned — forcing the group to find savings by outsourcing more component manufacturing, which may in turn threaten German jobs. "In-house production is almost irrelevant to the consumer," Daimler boss Dieter Zetsche told reporters on the eve of the Frankfurt Motor Show, in the midst of a German election campaign in which automotive jobs have loomed large. The company set a target of saving 4 billion euros ($4.8 billion) by 2025 to help fund the cost of its electric cars. "Daimler is the first company to state explicitly how much electric vehicles are going to hurt margins," said Bernstein analyst Max Warburton. "It was brave to go first — but of course it won't be the last." Volkswagen, for its part, said it was seeking new global supplier contracts to source 50 billion euros ($60 billion) of electric car content including batteries, which are not yet manufactured competitively in Europe. "A company like Volkswagen must lead, not follow," Chief Executive Matthias Mueller told reporters. VW diesel emissions-cheating exposed by U.S. regulators in 2015 triggered global public outrage, dozens more investigations into test-rigging by the wider industry and a push by some lawmakers to ban diesel and eventually all engines. TIGHTENING NOOSE Tesla shares jumped nearly 6 percent on Monday after a Chinese minister said it was a question of when, not if, Beijing bans fossil-fuel cars, tightening the noose around the combustion engine. France and Britain have promised its outright abolition by 2040. But PSA, the maker of Peugeots and Citroens, said it was concerned about the risks if consumers were left behind in the rush, and a new generation of battery cars does not sell.

Smart brand might be doomed

Reports are painting a less than rosy picture of the Smart brand's future. The Daimler-owned carmaker is going fully electric in 2020, but that might not be enough to keep it alive for long. Inside sources, quoted by Automobile Magazine, are saying Renault is likely to pull out of the partnership that created the current Smart ForTwo/Renault Twingo pairing introduced in 2014. The two rear-engined cars share a platform, and when the current Twingo is done for, Renault might want to part ways. In addition, Mercedes isn't willing to prop up Smart on its own, and there is a possibility that the entire Smart brand could be shuttered by 2026. A previous joint venture was the ForFour hatch co-developed with Mitsubishi, and despite the ForFour name living on in the current generation rear-engined car, the earlier FWD hatchback has quickly been forgotten. Not long ago, Smart presented its Forease open-top concept to give customers a glimpse of what future Smart cars would look like, but at its heart the Forease was still a current Smart dressed up with concept car details. The next-generation Mercedes-Benz A-Class is to be signed off in 2021 for a 2025 introduction, and it can be underpinned by a more flexible, fully scalable platform that could also serve to support a new entry-level Mercedes-Benz vehicle that could render the separate Smart brand pointless. Then there's Geely, who now owns nearly 10 percent of Daimler, and who is partnering with Daimler to launch a new "premium" ride-hailing venture in China. As Geely develops its mobility solutions, it is likely to keep an eye on Smart: Smart cars have been car-sharing staples around the world for quite a while, from users such as Car2Go. Automobile Magazine says that if a Smart is co-developed with Geely, it might suit the Chinese market well, but a global business case might be challenging. In any case, if Smart wants to survive beyond the current Renault partnership, the new model should be agreed upon quickly, and it must be based on a platform flexible enough to support full electric drive. Reportedly, there are now ongoing feasibility studies for a fully electric Daimler "U-Class," which would include a Smart-like three or five-door hatch with two wheelbase options, a ride-sharing shuttle with autonomous capabilities, and an urban delivery panel van. But Smart must justify itself for the upcoming decades, or the future Daimler products that occupy its niche will be wearing a three-pointed star instead.

Three automotive tech trends to watch in 2018 and beyond

Every year, technology plays a bigger and bigger role in the auto industry. To put things in perspective, 10 years ago iPod integration and Bluetooth were cutting-edge in-car innovations, and smartphones and apps weren't yet a thing since the first iPhone was only about six months old. And I can't recall anyone talking about autonomous cars. Compare that to today, with mainstream coverage of the auto industry dominated by autonomous technology, along with electrification and almost every move made by Tesla. These three topics were the most significant trends of car tech in 2017 and I believe they will continue to shape the auto industry in 2018 and beyond. Let's examine them. Full Autonomy Gets Closer to Reality While there were many developments this year that indicate we're inching closer to fully autonomous vehicles, I was behind the wheel for hours to witness one of them. In October I had the chance to test Cadillac Super Cruise on a 700-mile, 11-hour drive from Dallas to Santa Fe – and had my hands on the wheel for maybe 45 minutes max throughout the entire trip. Super Cruise is far from making the Cadillac CT6 or any GM vehicle fully autonomous, and has limitations such as functioning only on pre-mapped main highways. While it simply adds a layer of lane centering to adaptive cruise control, the technology will go a long way in making mainstream drivers more comfortable with letting machines take over. On a separate front, GM is pushing ahead with fully autonomous vehicles and announced last month that it plans to launch of fleets of self-driving robo-taxis in several urban areas in 2019. While most automakers are also in the race to make autonomous cars a reality, GM's turbocharging of its efforts appeared to be in response to Waymo, which announced just weeks earlier that its Early Rider Program in the Phoenix area would go completely driverless. The Early Rider Program launched last April, offering the public a chance to ride in Waymo's autonomous Chrysler Pacifica minivans. In this new phase of testing, Waymo is using its own employees as guinea pigs instead of the public while the vehicles operate without a human behind the wheel, and takes another giant step forward for fully autonomous driving.