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Luxury car brands scrambling to avoid a blue Christmas

DETROIT — When financial markets surge to new records, sales of luxury cars usually rise, too. Instead, October U.S. auto sales reports on Wednesday showed that a collapse in sales of luxury sedans is accelerating. Consumers have gradually shifted over to luxury sport utility vehicles from sedans in the past decade, but the trend — which has occurred in both the non-luxury and luxury sedan segments of the auto market — was particularly pronounced in October. Sales of Daimler AG's Mercedes-Benz S-Class, long a global benchmark for large, premium sedans, plunged 49 percent in October, and are down 24.8 percent for the year to date. General Motors' Cadillac brand said it sold just 779 of its CTS sedans in October. Demand for that car, designed to compete with German luxury sedans, is down nearly 33 percent for the year. "There's still a significant portion of the market that wants a car, but I'm sure there were people who preferred a horse to a car at one point." Cadillac's best-selling model this year is the XT5 compact SUV, which has more than doubled sales from a year ago. The shift within the luxury vehicle market away from sedans toward SUVs of all sizes is forcing some of the most prestigious brands to scramble to add SUV models to their lineups or boost SUV production to meet demand. "In the short term, there will be pressure to add (consumer) incentives, cut production or both," said Cox Automotive analyst Michelle Krebs. "And we just don't see an end in sight to this trend." The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been trading at all-time highs, usually a good sign for luxury sedans, but as major automakers reported new U.S. vehicle sales for October on Wednesday, sales for passenger cars continued their slide while luxury SUV and crossover sales rose again. According to Kelley Blue Book data, in 2007 luxury sedans made up 7.6 percent of U.S. new vehicle sales, while luxury SUVs made up 4.2 percent. Through September this year, luxury SUVs made up just over 7 percent of the market, compared with 4.9 percent for luxury sedans. In the short term, luxury brands could use holiday season sales promotions to clear slow-selling sedans off dealer lots, analysts said. Toyota's Lexus brand said on Wednesday it will launch its "December to Remember" year-end sales promotion for the 18th straight year.

Smart brand might be doomed

Reports are painting a less than rosy picture of the Smart brand's future. The Daimler-owned carmaker is going fully electric in 2020, but that might not be enough to keep it alive for long. Inside sources, quoted by Automobile Magazine, are saying Renault is likely to pull out of the partnership that created the current Smart ForTwo/Renault Twingo pairing introduced in 2014. The two rear-engined cars share a platform, and when the current Twingo is done for, Renault might want to part ways. In addition, Mercedes isn't willing to prop up Smart on its own, and there is a possibility that the entire Smart brand could be shuttered by 2026. A previous joint venture was the ForFour hatch co-developed with Mitsubishi, and despite the ForFour name living on in the current generation rear-engined car, the earlier FWD hatchback has quickly been forgotten. Not long ago, Smart presented its Forease open-top concept to give customers a glimpse of what future Smart cars would look like, but at its heart the Forease was still a current Smart dressed up with concept car details. The next-generation Mercedes-Benz A-Class is to be signed off in 2021 for a 2025 introduction, and it can be underpinned by a more flexible, fully scalable platform that could also serve to support a new entry-level Mercedes-Benz vehicle that could render the separate Smart brand pointless. Then there's Geely, who now owns nearly 10 percent of Daimler, and who is partnering with Daimler to launch a new "premium" ride-hailing venture in China. As Geely develops its mobility solutions, it is likely to keep an eye on Smart: Smart cars have been car-sharing staples around the world for quite a while, from users such as Car2Go. Automobile Magazine says that if a Smart is co-developed with Geely, it might suit the Chinese market well, but a global business case might be challenging. In any case, if Smart wants to survive beyond the current Renault partnership, the new model should be agreed upon quickly, and it must be based on a platform flexible enough to support full electric drive. Reportedly, there are now ongoing feasibility studies for a fully electric Daimler "U-Class," which would include a Smart-like three or five-door hatch with two wheelbase options, a ride-sharing shuttle with autonomous capabilities, and an urban delivery panel van. But Smart must justify itself for the upcoming decades, or the future Daimler products that occupy its niche will be wearing a three-pointed star instead.

Mercedes has already booked 30k orders for new S-Class

When Toyota snags 30,000 Corolla orders over a three-month span, it's entirely possible we're in the midst of a global economic collapse and that the end is nigh. That's because the scale for Toyota is so very large. Mercedes-Benz, on the other hand, operates on a much smaller scale, particularly when we talk about its higher-end models, like the S-Class.
In 2012, Mercedes sold 65,000 of its flagship sedans in Germany and the EU. That's 178 units per day, for 365 days. Based on that, you can imagine the excitement at Stuttgart when it accepted 30,000 orders for the new S-Class in just three months. That's an average of 333 per day on a continent with a notoriously shaky economy. Now, admittedly, this enthusiasm could wane as the refitted S-Class becomes more common and Mercedes achieves market saturation in Europe's many chauffeur and livery services, but Mercedes isn't choosing to look at it that way.
"The new S-Class has already jumped back into the lead in terms of new vehicle registrations in Germany and its neighboring European countries," Mercedes-Benz head of sales and marketing, Ola Kaellenius, said in a statement last week.