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U.S. tariff threat hits European automakers' stocks

FRANKFURT, Germany — A U.S. warning that it may introduce tariffs on foreign auto imports hit shares in German carmakers BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen on Thursday, which together have a more than 90 percent share of North America's premium car market. Washington said on Wednesday it had launched an investigation into whether car and truck imports are a national security issue due to signs they had damaged the U.S. auto industry. That could lead to new U.S. tariffs — up to 25 percent — similar to those imposed on imported steel and aluminum in March. BMW and Daimler shares fell as much as 3.1 percent in early Thursday trading, while Volkswagen's dropped as much as 2.5 percent. "(U.S. President) Donald Trump is obviously not thinking about how to prevent a trade war. Import duties on cars would be a nightmare for the German auto industry and would lead to a massive sales impact," said Thomas Altmann at Frankfurt-based asset manager QC Partners. BMW on Thursday condemned the move to consider tariffs. "The BMW Group is committed to free trade worldwide. Barrier-free access to markets is therefore a key factor not only for our business model, but also for growth welfare and employment throughout the global economy," it said. Daimler, which makes Mercedes-Benz cars, and Volkswagen, which makes upmarket Audis and Porsches, were not immediately available for comment. German carmakers produced 804,000 cars at local factories in the United States and exported 657,000 German-made cars into North America last year, according to German auto industry association VDA. China took pains on Thursday to welcome German firms and investments, with Premier Li Keqiang talking up relations after a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. BMW and Mercedes have expanded production capacity in the United States, but BMW, Audi, Volkswagen and Daimler have also invested billions to build new factories in Mexico in the hope of selling locally produced cars into the United States. German carmakers hiked vehicle production in Mexico by 46 percent to 620,000 cars last year, while production levels inside the United States fell by 6 percent to 804,000 cars because of a shift to Mexico, according to the VDA. BMW has its biggest factory worldwide in Spartanburg, South Carolina, and is the largest vehicle exporter among all the carmakers in the United States measured by value of goods exported. More than 70 percent of BMW's U.S.-made cars are exported.

2015 Italian Grand Prix is smoke, mirrors, stalls, and stewards

For the first day-and-a-half of the Italian Formula One Grand Prix weekend, everything went to blueprint: Mercedes in front, Ferrari lurking, everyone else scrambling in their usual orders behind. Then qualifying came, and someone stirred the pot. About the only thing we expected was for Lewis Hamilton to put his Mercedes-AMG Petronas on pole position, the 11th time he's done it this year. He did it with a brand-new specification engine, one that represents not only an evolution in components, but also in power unit philosophy. Kimi Raikkonen lines up in second. It's been a long time since we read those words; the Iceman hasn't been on the first row since the 2013 Chinese Grand Prix, when he put his Lotus second on the grid behind... Lewis Hamilton. Raikkonen lined up just ahead of a Ferrari at that China race, then driven by Fernando Alonso. In Italy this weekend, he lined up in front of the Ferrari driven by his teammate, Sebastian Vettel, who qualified third. Both Ferraris benefitted from an upgraded power unit, ending a front-row drought for the scuderia that goes all the way back to Monaco in 2009 Germany in 2012. Nico Rosberg has a lot of work to do from fourth in the second Mercedes-AMG Petronas. Mercedes discovered a problem with Rosberg's engine but couldn't figure out the cause, so he reverted to the previous-spec engine he used in Belgium, one that's six races old. The lack of power hurt. Williams teammates Felipe Massa and Valtteri Bottas took fifth and sixth, with Massa seemingly given a team-ordered helping hand. Williams told Bottas to tow Massa down the front straight, giving Massa a blistering time in the first sector. Then Bottas did it again, ensuring he would line up behind Massa. The first Sahara Force India of Sergio Perez nabbed seventh, three places ahead of teammate Nico Hulkenberg in tenth, with Romain Grosjean in the Lotus behind Perez in eighth. Marcus Ericsson in the Sauber qualified ninth, but some clumsy driving saw him impede Hulkenberg twice. The stewards penalized Ericsson with a three-place grid penalty and two points on his superlicense, so Hulkenberg inherited ninth and Pastor Maldonado in the second Lotus inherited tenth. We hardly saw Hamilton during the race, because he led from the start, worked up a larger gap to second place on every lap, and didn't give up the lead for the whole event.

The UK votes for Brexit and it will impact automakers

It's the first morning after the United Kingdom voted for what's become known as Brexit – that is, to leave the European Union and its tariff-free internal market. Now begins a two-year process in which the UK will have to negotiate with the rest of the EU trading bloc, which is its largest export market, about many things. One of them may be tariffs, and that could severely impact any automaker that builds cars in the UK. This doesn't just mean companies that you think of as British, like Mini and Jaguar. Both of those automakers are owned by foreign companies, incidentally. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors of India, and Bentley by the VW Group. Many other automakers produce cars in the UK for sale within that country and also export to the EU. Tariffs could damage the profits of each of these companies, and perhaps cause them to shift manufacturing out of the UK, significantly damaging the country's resurgent manufacturing industry. Autonews Europe dug up some interesting numbers on that last point. Nissan, the country's second-largest auto producer, builds 475k or so cars in the UK but the vast majority are sent abroad. Toyota built 190k cars last year in Britain, of which 75 percent went to the EU and just 10 percent were sold in the country. Investors are skittish at the news. The value of the pound sterling has plummeted by 8 percent as of this writing, at one point yesterday reaching levels not seen since 1985. Shares at Tata Motors, which counts Jaguar and Land Rover as bright jewels in its portfolio, were off by nearly 12 percent according to Autonews Europe. So what happens next? No one's terribly sure, although the feeling seems to be that the jilted EU will impost tariffs of up to 10 percent on UK exports. It's likely that the UK will reciprocate, and thus it'll be more expensive to buy a European-made car in the UK. Both situations will likely negatively affect the country, as both production of new cars and sales to UK consumers will both fall. Evercore Automotive Research figures the combined damage will be roughly $9b in lost profits to automakers, and an as-of-yet unquantified impact on auto production jobs. Perhaps the EU's leaders in Brussels will be in a better mood in two years, and the process won't devolve into a trade war. In the immediate wake of the Brexit vote, though, the mood is grim, the EU leadership is angry, and investors are spooked.