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Honda poised for growth, Detroit to hold steady, Car Wars study says

The automotive industry is expected to keep booming in the US over the next several years, but the train might start running out of steam in the long term, according to 2015's Car Wars report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy. The forecast focuses on changes between the 2016 and 2019 model years, and the latest trends appear similar in some cases to the past predictions. Sales are expected to keep growing and reach a peak of 20 million in 2018, according to the Detroit Free Press. The expansion is projected to come from a quick pace of vehicle launches, with an average of 48 introductions a year – 26 percent more than in 1996. Crossovers are expected to make up a third of these, maintaining their strong popularity. However, Murphy predicts a decline, as well. By 2025, total sales could fall to around 15 million units. As of May 2015, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this year stands at 17.71 million. Like last year, Honda is predicted to be a big winner in the future thanks to products like the next-gen Civic. "Honda should be the biggest market share gainer," Murphy said when presenting the report, according to Free Press. Meanwhile, in a situation similar to Car Wars from 2012, a lack of many new vehicles is expected to cause a drop for Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan. Based on this forecast, Ford, General Motors, and FCA US will all generally maintain market share for the coming years. The report does make some future product predictions, though. The next Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra might come in 2019, which is earlier than expected. Also, Lincoln could get a Mustang-based coupe for 2017, a compact sedan for 2018 and an Explorer-based model in 2019, according to the Free Press. Related Video: News Source: The Detroit Free PressImage Credit: Nam Y. Huh / AP Photo Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Lincoln Car Buying fca us

Lincoln Aviator could make a comeback

The idea of Lincoln dropping its alphanumeric scheme in favor of real names was welcomed by fans of the marque and even appeared possible after the rousing reception to the Continental concept. Now, rumors suggest that the next of the luxury brand's nameplates to see a possible revival just might be the Aviator. Don't get your hopes up quite yet, though. The Truth About Cars admits that this tip comes from a second-hand source, but the person reports that Lincoln has a project codenamed Aviator as a model based on the Explorer. There's evidence to give the rumor some shaky support, though. Ford already has the trademarks for the name and AV8R. Also, an Explorer-based vehicle in 2019 is included for the brand's predictions in the recent Car Wars forecast. Autoblog reached out to company spokesperson Sam Locricchio, but he would not speculate about future products. The same source claims to The Truth About Cars that the Blue Oval might not replace the Ford Flex or Lincoln MKT when the current generations come to an end. Also, the next-gen Expedition and Navigator could use 10-speed automatics and follow the F-150 to get aluminum bodies, which is also already rumored. Although, all of this should be taken with a big grain of salt until anything more official has arrived. Lincoln spokesperson Stephane Cesareo gave The Truth About Cars no comment on the rumor, but said, "By 2020, we expect to expand the segments that we participate in by adding two new nameplates to the Lincoln brand. We have not provided any indications about the products or their names." Related Video:

Lincoln Nautilus, Ford Edge latest prediction: Production ends in July 2024

In June, Auto Forecast Solutions put out a report compiled by its vice president of global forecasting, Sam Fiorani. One item in the report covered how Fiorani had heard from "multiple sources" that Ford shut down the program to replace the Edge crossover in 2023. Assuming this came to pass, with the Lincoln Nautilus based on the Edge, the inference is that the Nautilus would retire at or around the same time. Ford's response to media queries about the report was either "No comment" or PR-speak deflection. Lincoln's statement on the matter to Motor1, a crafty non-answer, was, "The Nautilus plays and will continue to play an important role in Lincoln’s growing SUV portfolio which includes the Corsair, Aviator and Navigator. Lincoln is investing in growth segments like SUVs and we have no plans to exit the segment." It's possible Lincoln has no plans to leave the segment, but the Nautilus might, according to a fresh, unsourced report in Ford Authority. The site claims the Nautilus will end production at the Oakville Assembly Plant in Ontario, Canada, in July 2024.  Again, we can't know how much, if any of this, is true. But we're zeroing in on a timeline for the potential end of the Edge and Nautilus in the U.S. Those are the only two products Oakville currently builds, and when the Canadian union Unifor asked Ford about the reports in June, Ford couldn't offer union reps anything concrete or reassuring. The Detroit News quoted Unifor chief Jerry Dias as saying of the automaker, "There is no question, they are going through a major evaluation of their portfolio, based on a whole host of things."   We could be seeing one of the earlier theories for Edge's potential demise coming true. Some analysts suspect Ford could be pruning its crossover lineup because it has too many similarly-sized offerings at the moment, the Edge hasn't met its sales targets in Europe, and more compact crossovers are on the way that could bring better street cred if they're associated with the Bronco or Bronco Sport. Unifor and Ford are now in negotiations over a new contract, so it's possible we'll get more clarity in the next month or so about Ford's plans and what will come of Oakville and its roughly 4,000 workers. If Ford walks away from the assembly plant, it will only have two engine plants left in Canada, and no vehicle assembly north of the border for the first time in about a century.