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The UK votes for Brexit and it will impact automakers

It's the first morning after the United Kingdom voted for what's become known as Brexit – that is, to leave the European Union and its tariff-free internal market. Now begins a two-year process in which the UK will have to negotiate with the rest of the EU trading bloc, which is its largest export market, about many things. One of them may be tariffs, and that could severely impact any automaker that builds cars in the UK. This doesn't just mean companies that you think of as British, like Mini and Jaguar. Both of those automakers are owned by foreign companies, incidentally. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors of India, and Bentley by the VW Group. Many other automakers produce cars in the UK for sale within that country and also export to the EU. Tariffs could damage the profits of each of these companies, and perhaps cause them to shift manufacturing out of the UK, significantly damaging the country's resurgent manufacturing industry. Autonews Europe dug up some interesting numbers on that last point. Nissan, the country's second-largest auto producer, builds 475k or so cars in the UK but the vast majority are sent abroad. Toyota built 190k cars last year in Britain, of which 75 percent went to the EU and just 10 percent were sold in the country. Investors are skittish at the news. The value of the pound sterling has plummeted by 8 percent as of this writing, at one point yesterday reaching levels not seen since 1985. Shares at Tata Motors, which counts Jaguar and Land Rover as bright jewels in its portfolio, were off by nearly 12 percent according to Autonews Europe. So what happens next? No one's terribly sure, although the feeling seems to be that the jilted EU will impost tariffs of up to 10 percent on UK exports. It's likely that the UK will reciprocate, and thus it'll be more expensive to buy a European-made car in the UK. Both situations will likely negatively affect the country, as both production of new cars and sales to UK consumers will both fall. Evercore Automotive Research figures the combined damage will be roughly $9b in lost profits to automakers, and an as-of-yet unquantified impact on auto production jobs. Perhaps the EU's leaders in Brussels will be in a better mood in two years, and the process won't devolve into a trade war. In the immediate wake of the Brexit vote, though, the mood is grim, the EU leadership is angry, and investors are spooked.

European automakers gear up for Brazilian production

Brazil is the place to be, apparently. Toyota has been investing in the South American country, as has BMW, which announced a $261 million investment in October 2012, on the heels of an Audi factory announcement in San José Chiapa. The high-end immigration is only set to continue, as Mercedes-Benz and Jaguar-Land Rover have both announced plans to set up manufacturing operations there.
Mercedes is the big news here, as its new facility will see the German manufacturer invest 170-million euros for production of its next-generation C-Class and upcoming GLA-Class. "Brazil is an important future market. With our local production we accept the challenge and take on the competition," noted Andreas Renschler, Management Board member for Production and Procurement at Mercedes-Benz Cars and Mercedes-Benz Vans. Production is expected to begin by 2016.
Jaguar-Land Rover, meanwhile, isn't so concrete in its plans. The news of its investment in South America comes from a job posting for a plant quality manager in Brazil that was picked up by the UK's AutoCar. "Portuguese language skills will be definite advantage" for interested candidates, according to the job listing. The want ad follows on the heels of remarks by Jaguar Land Rover's Dr. Ralph Speth, who said there are "very intensive discussions" with Brazil's government. Unlike Mercedes, there's no mention of which vehicles will be produced in South America, although AutoCar thinks the Freelander, sold in the US as the LR2, is a leading contender.

Jaguar Land Rover hands Tata the biggest loss in Indian corporate history

BENGALURU/NEW DELHI — Jaguar Land Rover's owner Tata Motors Ltd stunned markets by posting the biggest-ever quarterly loss in Indian corporate history of about $4 billion on slumping China sales, sending its shares crashing as much as 30 percent. Tata Motors also warned that the Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) unit, which brings in most of its revenue, would swing to an operating loss for the year versus an earlier projection it would break even, given weak sales at the luxury British carmaker. JLR's China retail sales were cut almost in half in the December quarter as overall demand in the world's biggest auto market contracted last year for the first time since the 1990s. The firm has also been buffeted by Brexit woes and weaker business for diesel cars that account for bulk of its sales in Europe. Tata Motors turned in a third-quarter loss of 269.93 billion rupees ($3.8 billion) on Thursday, more than half its current market capitalization of $6.1 billion, mostly due to a massive impairment at JLR. Analysts were expecting a profit. "We are now taking clear and decisive actions in JLR to step up its competitiveness, reduce costs and improve cash flows and make the business fit for the future," Chief Financial Officer PB Balaji told reporters on a conference call on Thursday. JLR has taken steps to address the slide in China sales by changing its strategy to focus on profits for dealers instead of sales and incentivising retail sales over wholesale, he said. "We are encouraged by continued demand for the refreshed Range Rover and Range Rover Sport," JLR Chief Commercial Officer Felix Brautigam said in a statement. "With deliveries of the new Evoque due to start later this quarter, we look forward to building momentum." But analysts expect JLR to struggle to generate profit with China's economy projected to slow further this year after growth eased to its weakest pace in almost three decades in 2018. JLR's overall retail sales in January plunged 11 percent. The dour numbers prompted Tata investors to make a beeline for the exits as markets opened on Friday, with shares of the company skidding to their lowest in nine years at one point. The stock was down about 20 percent by 0720 GMT near 150 rupees, on track for its sharpest drop since 2003. At least four brokerages cut their price target for Tata Motors shares after its quarterly loss. Analysts at Jefferies pegged the stock at 250 rupees, versus an earlier target of 300 rupees, citing weak performance at JLR.