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China-FCA merger could be a win-win for everyone but politicians

NEW YORK — Fiat Chrysler boss Sergio Marchionne has said the car industry needs to come together, cut costs and stop incinerating capital. So far, his words have mostly fallen on deaf ears among competitors in Europe and North America. But it appears Marchionne has finally found a receptive audience — in China. FCA shares soared Monday after trade publication Automotive News reported the $18 billion Italian-American conglomerate controlled by the Agnelli family rebuffed a takeover from an unidentified carmaker from the Chinese mainland. As ugly as the politics of such a combination may appear at first blush, a transaction could stack up industrially, and perhaps even financially. A Sino-U.S.-European merger would create the first truly global auto group. That could push consolidation to the next level elsewhere. Moreover, China is the world's top market for the SUVs that Jeep effectively invented, so it might benefit FCA financially. A combo would certainly help upgrade the domestic manufacturer; Chinese carmakers have gotten better at making cars, but struggle to build global brands, and they need to develop export markets. Though frivolous overseas shopping excursions by Chinese enterprises are being reined in by Beijing, acquisitions that support the modernization and transformation of strategic industries still receive support, and the government considers the automotive industry to be strategic. A purchase of FCA by Guangzhou Automobile, Great Wall or Dongfeng Motors would probably get the same stamp of approval ChemChina was given for its $43 billion takeover of Syngenta. What's standing in the way? Apart from price (Automotive News said FCA's board deemed the offer insufficient) there's the not-insignificant matter of politics. Even as FCA shares soared, President Donald Trump interrupted his vacation to instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to look into whether to investigate China's trade policies on intellectual property. Seeing storied Detroit brands like Jeep, Chrysler, Ram and Dodge handed off to a Chinese company would provoke howls among Trump's economic-nationalist supporters. It might not play well in Italy, either, to see Alfa Romeo and Maserati answering to Wuhan instead of Turin — though Automotive News said they might be spun off separately. Yet, as Morgan Stanley observes, "cars don't ship across oceans easily," and political considerations increasingly demand local manufacture of valuable products.

Baby Jeep to join Renegade in FCA's plan for new Italian-built models

FCA is boosting its European production, introducing new models that will be built in currently under-utilized manufacturing facilities. Among the new models is a new small Jeep, smaller than the current Renegade, as Automotive News reports. FCA's Mike Manley mentioned the entry-level Jeep model earlier this year, also saying that the vehicle is targeted to European and possibly Latin American customers; in the summer, Autocar placed the launch date in 2022. The new "baby" Jeep would be made in the same factory in Pomigliano, Italy, as the small Fiat Panda, which is a top seller in Italy. The current generation Panda was introduced in 2011; if it gets a replacement in 2022, it could possibly share a platform with the Jeep model — or, the Jeep could be an eventual outright replacement for the Panda. One of Fiat's earlier core products, the Punto hatchback, was canned in August, and that production capacity will be used to make the Jeep Compass instead, at the Renegade-producing Melfi factory in southern Italy. The Compass has not previously been built in Europe. The Fiat model portfolio would be shrunk to just the 500 model family and the Panda — the 500 would also be FCA's key electric vehicle offered in Europe. It is not yet clear whether the electric 500 would be made in Turin, Italy, or in Poland; Turin might also get a Giardiniera-badged wagon version of the refreshed 500. As for the Alfa Romeo brand, it is set to gain an even bigger SUV model than the Stelvio, based on the Maserati Levante's platform. The Levante's sales have suffered recently in China, but Maserati does have light in the horizon: The Alfieri 2+2 grand tourer is still in the cards, with a launch expected for 2020 and both a convertible and an electrified version planned to follow. The Alfieri would be made in Modena, Italy, according to Automotive News' sources. None of these plans namedrop the storied Lancia brand, which has been shrunk to just the Ypsilon hatchback, based on the same platform as the current 500 and Panda. Despite that, the Ypsilon was again the second-bestselling car in Italy after the Panda in October. It is unlikely that FCA will be able to ignore this, but it is just as unlikely that any development money will be afforded to come up with a replacement for the Ypsilon, which is as similarly old as the Panda. Perhaps official announcements expected on Thursday will also clarify what will happen to Lancia.

Auto Mergers and Acquisitions: Suicide or salvation?

We love the Moses figure. A savior riding in from stage right with the ideas, the smarts, and the scrappiness to put things right. Alan Mullaly. Carroll Shelby. Lee Iacocca. Andrew Carnegie. Steve Jobs. Elon Musk. Bart Simpson. Sergio Marchionne does not likely view himself with Moses-like optics, but the CEO of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles recently gave a remarkable, perhaps prophetic interview with Automotive News about his interest and the inevitability of merging with a potential automotive partner like General Motors. Marchionne has been overtly public about his notion that GM must merge with FCA. For a bit of context, GM sold 9.9 million vehicles in 2014, posting $2.8 billion in net income, while FCA sold 4.75 million units and earned $2.4 billion in net income, painting a very rosy FCA earnings-to-sales picture. But that's not the entire picture. Most people in the auto industry still remember the trainwreck that was the DaimlerChrysler "merger" written in what turned out to be sand in 1998. It proved to be a master class in how not to fuse two companies, two cultures, two continents, and two management teams. Oh, it worked for the two individuals at both helms pre-merger. They got silly rich. And the industry itself was in a misty romance at the time with mergers and acquisitions. BMW bought Rolls-Royce. Volkswagen Group bought Bentley, Bugatti, and Lamborghini, putting all three brands into their rightful place in both products and positioning. No marriages there, so no false pretense. Finally, Nissan and Renault got married in 1999. A successful marriage requires several rare elements in this atmosphere of gas fumes and power lust. But a successful marriage requires several rare elements in this atmosphere of gas fumes and power lust, the principle part being honesty. Daimler and Chrysler lied to each other. The heads of each unit, the product planners, and finance all presented their then-current and long-range forecasts to each other with less-than-forthright accuracy. Daimler was the far greater equal and no one from the Chrysler side enjoyed that. The cultures were entirely different, too, and little was done to bridge that gap. Which brings me back to the present overtures by Marchionne to GM. "There are varying degrees of hugs," Marchionne stated in the Automotive News piece. "I can hug you nicely, I can hug you tightly, I can hug you like a bear, I can really hug you." Seriously?