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China-FCA merger could be a win-win for everyone but politicians

NEW YORK — Fiat Chrysler boss Sergio Marchionne has said the car industry needs to come together, cut costs and stop incinerating capital. So far, his words have mostly fallen on deaf ears among competitors in Europe and North America. But it appears Marchionne has finally found a receptive audience — in China. FCA shares soared Monday after trade publication Automotive News reported the $18 billion Italian-American conglomerate controlled by the Agnelli family rebuffed a takeover from an unidentified carmaker from the Chinese mainland. As ugly as the politics of such a combination may appear at first blush, a transaction could stack up industrially, and perhaps even financially. A Sino-U.S.-European merger would create the first truly global auto group. That could push consolidation to the next level elsewhere. Moreover, China is the world's top market for the SUVs that Jeep effectively invented, so it might benefit FCA financially. A combo would certainly help upgrade the domestic manufacturer; Chinese carmakers have gotten better at making cars, but struggle to build global brands, and they need to develop export markets. Though frivolous overseas shopping excursions by Chinese enterprises are being reined in by Beijing, acquisitions that support the modernization and transformation of strategic industries still receive support, and the government considers the automotive industry to be strategic. A purchase of FCA by Guangzhou Automobile, Great Wall or Dongfeng Motors would probably get the same stamp of approval ChemChina was given for its $43 billion takeover of Syngenta. What's standing in the way? Apart from price (Automotive News said FCA's board deemed the offer insufficient) there's the not-insignificant matter of politics. Even as FCA shares soared, President Donald Trump interrupted his vacation to instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to look into whether to investigate China's trade policies on intellectual property. Seeing storied Detroit brands like Jeep, Chrysler, Ram and Dodge handed off to a Chinese company would provoke howls among Trump's economic-nationalist supporters. It might not play well in Italy, either, to see Alfa Romeo and Maserati answering to Wuhan instead of Turin — though Automotive News said they might be spun off separately. Yet, as Morgan Stanley observes, "cars don't ship across oceans easily," and political considerations increasingly demand local manufacture of valuable products.

Weekly Recap: Ferrari looks to reclaim old success with new manager

Clearly, Ferrari doesn't race for fourth place, and this week, major changes continued at the Scuderia. It was a rough year for Ferrari, and the Scuderia conducted its season-ending tests in Abu Dhabi this week with a view toward a fresh start in 2015 with new leaders and a new ace driver. Though plenty of other Formula One teams were disappointed with their finishes in 2014, Ferrari was perhaps the most eager to put this season in its rear-view mirror. The Scuderia finished a distant fourth in the Constructors standings with 216 points, well behind No. 1 Mercedes (701 points), and Ferrari failed to win a single race as the Silver Arrows dominated the grid. It was an especially bitter pill for a team that claims 16 Constructors championships and 15 Drivers titles – the most in history – and is the only surviving team from F1's first season, 1950. Clearly, Ferrari doesn't race for fourth place, and this week, major changes continued at the Scuderia. Ferrari named Philip Morris executive Maurizio Arrivabene as team principal. He replaced Marco Mattiacci, who held the job for only seven months after taking over for Stefano Domenicali, who resigned in April amid the Scuderia's early-season struggles. Phillip Morris (through its Marlboro brand) is a key Ferrari sponsor, and that played a role in Arrivabene's ascension. Still, he's no stranger to F1, and has been intimately involved in the Ferrari-Marlboro partnership. He also has served as the sponsors' representative on the FIA's F1 Commission since 2010. In a statement, new Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne said: "We decided to appoint Maurizio Arrivabene because, at this historic moment in time for the Scuderia and for Formula One, we need a person with a thorough understanding not just of Ferrari, but also of the governance mechanisms and requirements of the sport." Arrivabene's background is primarily in marketing and communication, and most recently he held the title of vice president of consumer channel strategy and event marketing for Philip Morris. He has been with the company since 1997. Arrivabene now leads a team that's rife with change. Marchionne took over in October when longtime boss Luca di Montezemolo quit in a disagreement about Ferrari's future, and the company itself will be spun off from parent Fiat Chrysler Automobiles in 2015.

Fiat Chrysler target 850k sales in China by 2018

Behind the vanguard of numerous Jeep models, two Chryslers, a smattering of Fiats and Alfa Romeos and local production through a joint venture with Guangzhou Automotive Group (GAG), Fiat Chrysler wants to increase sales in China more than six-fold by 2018. The group sold 130,000 cars in China in 2013, the aim for 2018 being 850,000 cars.
Ultimately it's expected that the Jeep Grand Cherokee, Cherokee, Wrangler, Renegade, the coming Grand Wagoneer and a sub-Renegade-sized crossover will either be built in or exported to the People's Republic. The Chrysler Town & Country and 300 will join the export list in 2016 and 2018 respectively, according to a report in Automotive News.
With a number of those vehicles not in production or perhaps even envisaged yet, and others not due on the local market until 2018, it will be interesting to see how Fiat Chrysler plans to achieve the target in the specified timeframe. The joint venture with GAG builds two products now, the Dodge Dart-based Fiat Viaggio launched two years ago - supposedly designed just for China - and the just-launched Fiat Ottimo, a hatchback version of the Viaggio. Fiat projected 300,000 Viagio sales in its first two years, that number has been adjusted downward to 94,000 and there doesn't appear to be an analyst alive that sees a good future for Fiat in China's overrun mainstream market. Still, last year's 130,000 group sales in China is a huge jump from 2012 sales of 66,000 units, but less than half the 300,000 units it projected.