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2016: The year of the autonomous-car promise

About half of the news we covered this year related in some way to The Great Autonomous Future, or at least it seemed that way. If you listen to automakers, by 2020 everyone will be driving (riding?) around in self-driving cars. But what will they look like, how will we make the transition from driven to driverless, and how will laws and infrastructure adapt? We got very few answers to those questions, and instead were handed big promises, vague timelines, and a dose of misdirection by automakers. There has been a lot of talk, but we still don't know that much about these proposed vehicles, which are at least three years off. That's half a development cycle in this industry. We generally only start to get an idea of what a company will build about two years before it goes on sale. So instead of concrete information about autonomous cars, 2016 has brought us a lot of promises, many in the form of concept cars. They have popped up from just about every automaker accompanied by the CEO's pledge to deliver a Level 4 autonomous, all-electric model (usually a crossover) in a few years. It's very easy to say that a static design study sitting on a stage will be able to drive itself while projecting a movie on the windshield, but it's another thing entirely to make good on that promise. With a few exceptions, 2016 has been stuck in the promising stage. It's a strange thing, really; automakers are famous for responding with "we don't discuss future product" whenever we ask about models or variants known to be in the pipeline, yet when it comes to self-driving electric wondermobiles, companies have been falling all over themselves to let us know that theirs is coming soon, it'll be oh so great, and, hey, that makes them a mobility company now, not just an automaker. A lot of this is posturing and marketing, showing the public, shareholders, and the rest of the industry that "we're making one, too, we swear!" It has set off a domino effect – once a few companies make the guarantee, the rest feel forced to throw out a grandiose yet vague plan for an unknown future. And indeed there are usually scant details to go along with such announcements – an imprecise mileage estimate here, or a far-off, percentage-based goal there. Instead of useful discussion of future product, we get demonstrations of test mules, announcements of big R&D budgets and new test centers they'll fund, those futuristic concept cars, and, yeah, more promises.

All the Hyundai Santa Cruz needs now is the green light

Ever since Hyundai took the wraps off the Santa Cruz concept nearly a year ago, we've been closely watching to see if the Korean automaker would put it into production. The signs have been looking good, but this could be our clearest indication yet. According to the company's North American product planning chief, the road ahead is clear for the compact pickup. "We're very anxious to do something with the idea," Mike O'Brien told AutoGuide. "The engineering feasibility work has been done," and 18 months of preparation have already gone into laying out the business case. Now all it needs is the green light from the head office. Hyundai unveiled the Santa Cruz concept – codenamed HCD-15 – at the 2015 Detroit Auto Show. The design calls for a compact pickup crossover, similar in concept to the Honda Ridgeline, but smaller. It would be targeted towards young customers interested in outdoor activities who don't want to track the elements inside their vehicle along with their mountain bikes, kayaks, surfboards, and snowboards. If approved, the Santa Cruz would likely share its underpinnings with the Tucson crossover. Hyundai sells a good 50,000 Tucsons each year in the US, and the Santa Cruz is estimated to match (if not exceed) that number, helping Hyundai double its sales based on the same platform. The Santa Cruz is also tipped to be Hyundai's first diesel model in America. "The diesel is the most promising because of the fuel economy it delivers," said O'Brien. "It best matches in our research of what these customers are looking for... Outstanding fuel economy, good torque and good driveability."

Recharge Wrap-up: Tesla battery degradation graphed, Hyundai plans fuel cell hub in Korea

A man has created a graph of Tesla Model S battery degradation over time. Merijn Coumans of Holland is tracking the owner data gathered on from Model S owners in a single file and graphing it visually. Coumans continually updates the graph of drivers' maximum ranges to give a look at battery degradation over the life of the car. Coumans tracks mileage and even number of visits to Superchargers in his data. Tesla provides an eight-year battery guarantee regardless of mileage. Read more at the Steinbuch blog. US plug-in vehicle sales are expected to surpass 300,000 when the data is tallied at the end of this month. That is 30 percent of President Obama's goal of 1 million battery electric cars and plug-in hybrids by the end of 2015. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz admitted the US won't reach the goal, saying, "We're going to be a few years after the president's aspirational goal of the end of 2015, but I think that we are within a few years of reaching that goal." Green car analyst Alan Baum projects the 1 million EV milestone will be met in 2018. Read more at Hybrid Cars. Hyundai and the South Korean government plan to create a hub for fuel cell technologies. Hyundai and Kia will give up unused patents to automotive startups focused on fuel cells at a recently launched innovation center in Gwangju. "Hyundai Motor will offer substantial assistance in the whole process of corporate growth ranging from the development of ideas to industrialization to making inroads into global markets," says South Korea's President Park Geun-hye. Hyundai hopes this will make the city a center for hydrogen technology. Read more at Just Auto. Mayor Boris Johnson has approved a cycling superhighway for the city of London. Set to be built along the Thames embankment, the system of cycling lanes could help encourage more people to ride their bikes, reducing automotive traffic congestion and relieving pressure on other transit networks. Opponents are upset that the cycling highway will increase driving time across the city, and call cyclists a "loud minority," whose numbers doesn't justify the new lanes. Read more at Treehugger. Kansas and Nebraska are joining the challenge against the EPA's new ethanol emissions rules. The EPA's Moves2014 regulations seek to reduce automotive sulfur emissions by 60 percent, but, says Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt, the ethanol emissions measurement model is faulty and was adopted without public comment or review.