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2016: The year of the autonomous-car promise

About half of the news we covered this year related in some way to The Great Autonomous Future, or at least it seemed that way. If you listen to automakers, by 2020 everyone will be driving (riding?) around in self-driving cars. But what will they look like, how will we make the transition from driven to driverless, and how will laws and infrastructure adapt? We got very few answers to those questions, and instead were handed big promises, vague timelines, and a dose of misdirection by automakers. There has been a lot of talk, but we still don't know that much about these proposed vehicles, which are at least three years off. That's half a development cycle in this industry. We generally only start to get an idea of what a company will build about two years before it goes on sale. So instead of concrete information about autonomous cars, 2016 has brought us a lot of promises, many in the form of concept cars. They have popped up from just about every automaker accompanied by the CEO's pledge to deliver a Level 4 autonomous, all-electric model (usually a crossover) in a few years. It's very easy to say that a static design study sitting on a stage will be able to drive itself while projecting a movie on the windshield, but it's another thing entirely to make good on that promise. With a few exceptions, 2016 has been stuck in the promising stage. It's a strange thing, really; automakers are famous for responding with "we don't discuss future product" whenever we ask about models or variants known to be in the pipeline, yet when it comes to self-driving electric wondermobiles, companies have been falling all over themselves to let us know that theirs is coming soon, it'll be oh so great, and, hey, that makes them a mobility company now, not just an automaker. A lot of this is posturing and marketing, showing the public, shareholders, and the rest of the industry that "we're making one, too, we swear!" It has set off a domino effect – once a few companies make the guarantee, the rest feel forced to throw out a grandiose yet vague plan for an unknown future. And indeed there are usually scant details to go along with such announcements – an imprecise mileage estimate here, or a far-off, percentage-based goal there. Instead of useful discussion of future product, we get demonstrations of test mules, announcements of big R&D budgets and new test centers they'll fund, those futuristic concept cars, and, yeah, more promises.

Recharge Wrap-up: Chevy Volt's new, improved powertrain; Inabikari wants to build Tesla Model X fighter

We knew the 2016 Chevrolet Volt's new powertrain would provide more range, but we didn't know how much. According to GM's Executive Director Larry Nitz, it is about 12 percent more, overall. "I can't think of a powertrain we've re-engineered more extensively within a five-year period than this one," he said. The battery, electric drive system and gasoline generator have all been reworked to allow for an overall driving range of up to 425 miles, with electric range speculated to reach 42 miles or more. The new Volt will also benefit from 20 percent quicker low-end acceleration, weight reductions and improvements in NVH. Read more at Hybrid Cars and at the SAE website. Hyundai's FCEV research and development boss, Dr. Sae-Hoon Kim, is optimistic about the future of hydrogen mobility in Japan. With the Tucson Fuel Cell already in production ahead of Toyota's FCV, Hyundai has a foothold in the hydrogen car scene. Kim believes that since the Fukushima disaster, Japan's attitudes toward energy make it friendly to a growing hydrogen economy. He also says that hydrogen won't be limited to Hyundai, with Kia getting all the battery EVs. "Both types are for both companies," Kim says. "For the moment, volumes are small and it is not wise to have Hyundai and Kia competing." Read more at Just Auto. The Latvian/German startup Inabikari is using crowdfunding to build an electric crossover for Europe. The Rev.01 EV hopes to compete with Tesla's upcoming Model X with a range of over 400 miles and a five-second 0-60 time. The group currently is trying to raise initial funds through an Indiegogo campaign, with hopes of more investment in the future and sales beginning in 2017. See the video below, and read more at Hybrid Cars and at the Inabikari website. Fuel economy and emissions regulations could lead to some interesting design changes to automobiles. The World Light Duty Test Procedure, set to replace the New European Driving Cycle in 2017, will push automakers to find new ways to reduce drag on their vehicles. For better aerodynamics, we could see traditional side-view mirrors replaced by cameras that display what they see on screens inside the vehicle. Another likely change will be the introduction of smaller, narrower wheels. Improving the average drag coefficient from 0.32 to 0.20 could reduce CO2 emissions by as much as 20 percent. Read more at Automotive News Europe.

Tucson hydrogen fuel cell CUV will allow Hyundai to sell more dirty cars

With the first Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell Vehicle deliveries happening soon (a bit later than expected), it's time for the Korean automaker to explain why it's offering the H2 CUV here in the states. After all, there are only 10 public hydrogen stations in the US today, according to the DOE, so it can't be to take over the market. According to a Hyundai exec, the reason we are getting the Tucson Fuel Cell is to make up to $130,000 through California's ZEV credit system. "We really don't make any money out of selling the fuel cell vehicles for now" – Byung Ki Ahn According to Wards Auto, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) will give the automaker up to 26 points worth of zero emission vehicle (ZEV) credits for each of the $499/month hydrogen Tucson leased through the 2017 model year. Those credits could be worth up to $130,000 to Hyundai. Byung Ki Ahn, Hyundai's director of the fuel cell group, told Wards Auto that, "We really don't make any money out of selling the fuel cell vehicles for now. ... So just by selling the fuel cell (vehicle) we could get a lot of credit points, which you could sell at a later time if you want, like Tesla does. It could be a good business model." Ahn clarified that Hyundai does not plan to cash in on those credits, but to use them to offset the rest of its vehicle lineup. Other automakers also participate in the ZEV credit system, of course, but if Anh's numbers are correct, then fuel cell vehicles earn more credits than battery electric vehicles do, so if you want to earn a lot of credits, hydrogen is a good way to go. You can find more details over at Wards Auto. *This post has been updated to mention other automakers using the ZEV scheme.