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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Toyota Camry, Honda Civic inventories mounting as US automakers make inroads

Two of the hottest-selling cars in America aren't quite as hot as they used to be. The Toyota Camry and Honda Civic are both seeing dealer supplies increase in the face of renewed competition from the much-improved Detroit Three.
According to a report from The Detroit News, the Camry's dealer inventory is 15 days higher than its seasonal average, while the Civic is 25 days above average. Things aren't expected to get better for Toyota and Honda, as RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak marked the two Japanese offerings as "at risk for reduced output."
The Detroit Three, meanwhile, are seeing supplies dwindle as demand increases, especially for the Ford Fusion, which has seen an 18-percent increase in 2013 sales, and the Chevrolet Cruze, which was second only to the Camry in June 2013 sales.

Honda reports $2.3 billion profit despite pandemic

TOKYO — Japanese automaker Honda reported Friday that its profit rose 23% in the last quarter, despite a pandemic that has slammed businesses around the world. Tokyo-based Honda said its July-September profit was 240.9 billion yen ($2.3 billion), up from 196.5 billion yen a year earlier, as the auto market recovered in some parts of the world. Honda said it carried out aggressive cost cuts that involved a “fundamental review” of its operations. The situation was also improving from earlier this year, when lockdowns and other problems related to COVID-19 caused disruptions of some production and an inventory crunch. Quarterly sales slipped to 3.65 trillion yen ($35 billion) from 3.73 trillion yen the same period a year earlier. Honda warned that uncertainty remains amid rising COVID-19 cases. But the company stressed it was managing to cling to profitability. Reflecting that upbeat mood, Honda raised its profit forecast for the fiscal year through March 2021 to 390 billion yen ($3.8 billion) from an earlier projection for 165 billion yen ($1.6 billion). The latest forecast is still lower than the 455.7 billion yen profit Honda booked in the previous fiscal year. Honda sold slightly more vehicles in the quarter through September at 1.25 million vehicles, compared to 1.24 million vehicles in the same period of 2019. But it sold fewer motorcycles at nearly 4.5 million motorcycles, down from nearly 5.1 million. Kohei Takeuchi, a senior Honda manager, said much of the damage to sales likely came from the pandemic, though he hesitated to blame the entire decline on the pandemic. Executive Vice President Seiji Kuraishi told reporters Honda is bullish on shifting its lineup to ecological models to keep up with the global efforts to curb carbon emissions and global warming. Also Friday, Toyota raised its full year fiscal forecasts to a 1.4 trillion yen ($13.5 billion) profit, after reporting results that appear to show a gradual but sure recovery. Its profit fell 11% in the last quarter. Nissan reports financial results next week. Related Video: Earnings/Financials Acura Honda