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Mixed sales results, but automaker stocks rise on need for cars in Houston

DETROIT — The Big Three Detroit automakers on Friday reported better-than-expected August sales and issued optimistic outlooks for demand as residents of the Houston area replace flood-damaged cars and trucks after Hurricane Harvey, sending their stocks higher. General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler posted mixed August U.S. sales, with GM up 7.5 percent and Ford and Fiat Chrysler down. Japanese automaker Toyota improved sales by nearly 7 percent, while Honda fell 2.4 percent. Still, analysts focused on the potential for Detroit automakers to cut inventories and stabilize used vehicle prices as residents of Houston, the fourth largest city in the United States, are forced to replace tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of vehicles after the devastation from Hurricane Harvey. Mark LaNeve, Ford's U.S. sales chief, told analysts on Friday that following Hurricane Katrina in 2005 "we saw a very dramatic snapback" in demand. That said, Ford sales fell 2.1 percent in August. It sold 209,897 vehicles in the United States, compared with 214,482 a year earlier. Sales were down 1.9 percent in the Ford division and off 5.8 percent at Lincoln. Demand was down for cars, crossovers and SUVs. It was not clear how many vehicles in the Houston area will be scrapped, LaNeve said, saying he had seen estimates ranging from 200,000 to 400,000 to 1 million. Ford's Houston dealers may have lost fewer than 5,000 vehicles in inventory, he said. Ford is the No. 1 automaker in the Houston market, with 18 percent share, according to IHS Markit. The company plans to ship used vehicles to Houston dealers and has "every indication we would have to add some production" of new vehicles to meet demand, LaNeve said. Investor concerns about inventories of unsold vehicles and falling used car prices have weighed on Detroit automakers' shares most of this year. Now, automakers can anticipate a jolt of demand from a big market that is a stronghold for Detroit brand trucks and SUVs. "It's got to be a positive for the industry," LaNeve said. Investors appeared to agree. GM shares rose as much as 3.3 percent to their highest since early March. Ford increased 2.8 percent at $11.34, and Fiat Chrysler's U.S.-traded shares were up 5.2 percent $15.91, hitting their highest in more than five years. GM reported a 7.5 percent increase in U.S. auto sales in August, helped by robust sales of crossovers across its four brands.

Former NHTSA chief may lead automaker-backed Takata investigation

An automaker-led effort may see the former head of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration take on the probe into the Takata airbag inflator disaster. A coalition of at least ten automakers is in talks with former NHTSA administrator David Kelly, with unnamed sources familiar with the discussions telling The Wall Street Journal he is "among those we are considering to coordinate" the investigation.The Detroit News, meanwhile, is reporting he could be hired "in the coming days." Takata, the Japanese seatbelt and airbag manufacturer, has been the center of a defect scandal since last year. Takata is under fire for air bag inflators that can explode, shooting out metal and plastic pieces. At least five deaths and dozens of injuries have been linked to the problem worldwide. Earlier this year, Honda Motor Co., the automaker with the biggest exposure to the defective Takata air bags, was fined $70 million in the U.S. for not reporting to regulators some 1,729 complaints that its vehicles caused deaths and injuries, and for not reporting warranty claims. It was the largest civil penalty levied against an automaker. Should he take the role, Kelly would be at the fore of an investigation being assembled by an alliance of ten automakers, which includes the Detroit Three and Honda. Toyota first suggested a joint investigation back in December, The Journal reports. Kelly's goals, meanwhile, will be many. The Detroit News reports that questions abound regarding not only the recalled airbag inflators and the conditions that cause them to fail, but the whether the replacement units will have similar problems in the future. The automaker committee is far from the only one analyzing the airbag issue. Takata has assembled its own panel, led by former Secretary of Transportation Samuel Skinner, while NHTSA's deputy administrator, David Friedman, has brought in an outside engineering firm to investigate the inflators, The Detroit News reports. Separately, on Friday Takata Corp., the Japanese seatbelt and air-bag maker at the center of a defect scandal, is expecting more red ink for the fiscal year through March. It is projecting a 31 billion yen ($264 million) loss, worse than the previous forecast for a 25 billion yen ($214 million) loss, despite higher sales expected for the fiscal year. Ten automakers have recalled about 12 million vehicles in the U.S. and about 19 million globally for problems with the air bags.

'Car Wars' says Ford, Honda to pick up share, Fiat-Chrysler ambitions downplayed

Don't look for a tremendous shifts in automotive market share over the next three years because it might not be coming. That's at least according to the annual Car Wars report by John Murphy, from Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research.
In the report's analysis of automakers' market share from 2013 to 2017, it predicts only small changes among the major companies. Ford and Honda see the biggest positive effect with an estimated 0.5 percent increase in their shares over the next three years; to 16.2 percent and 10.3 percent respectively. On the flip side, European automakers and Nissan are expected to lose 0.2 percent each to fall to 8.3 percent and 7.8 percent each respectively. The rest of the industry is predicted to hold steady as it is now.
The biggest loser in that prediction might be Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles. The report certainly throws a wet blanket on its plan for significant gains in market share. Murphy told The Detroit News that the company's goal was "almost unattainable."